Surprise! Unexpected ocean heat waves are becoming the norm
Credit: Viv Lynch/flickr

Surprise! Unexpected ocean heat waves are becoming the norm

"We are entering a world where history is an unreliable guide for decision-making"

Ocean heat waves, which can push out fish, plankton and other aquatic life, are happening far more frequently than previously thought, according to a study published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.


"Based on historical and lived experience, people expect certain conditions to prevail in the ecosystems they depend upon. Climate change is now introducing strong trends that push conditions beyond historic levels," the authors wrote.

Led by the Gulf of Maine Research Institute, researchers looked at 65 large marine ecosystems around the world over the past 164 years to determine how frequently "surprising" ocean temperatures occur, with surprising defined as an event expected to occur about two times in 100 years, lead author and chief scientific officer at the Gulf of Maine Research Institute Andrew Pershing told EHN via email.

Pershing and colleagues reported that over the past seven years, the planet averaged 12 ecosystems each year experiencing the kind of unusually warm temperatures that someone in the given region would expect to see only a couple times in a century. In 2016 alone there were 23 such events.

"Across the 65 ecosystems we examined, we expected about six or seven of them would experience these 'surprises' each year," Pershing said in a statement.

The results are in line with what scientists continue to warn: oceans are the Earth's largest heat collector. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, more than 90 percent of Earth's warming over the past 50 years has happened in the ocean.

These increasing surprises documented by Pershing and other researchers are happening all over the world—the Arctic, North Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and near Australia—and spell trouble for corals, fish and tiny organisms at the base of the food chain.

While overall warming, not the surprise warming events, has a more profound effect on marine species, the researchers did find, via modeling, that surprise heat waves will decrease biodiversity. They pointed to warming trends in the Tropics as an example, where there is increasingly less coral reef cover and complexity.

Humans need to adapt and plan for these marine heat waves as well, the authors write. "To be successful, human institutions including businesses, communities, management agencies, and governments will need to adopt strategies that look forward rather than backward," they wrote.

As an example of "backward thinking," they pointed to the rapid increase in temperature in the Gulf of Maine and the resulting population collapse in the economic and ecologically vital cod fishery.

"We are entering a world where history is an unreliable guide for decision-making," Pershing said. "In a rapidly changing world, betting that trends will continue is a much better strategy."

See the full study here.

A house is loaded onto a truck at a dock next to a body of water.

How a First Nation’s housing project could spark a home-rescue revolution

A small First Nation in British Columbia is showing how salvaged homes can become sustainable housing — and a blueprint for greener development.

David Beers and Quinn Kelly report for The Tyee.

Keep reading...Show less
Rows of solar panels in a large parking lot with a sign in the foreground displaying a General Motors logo.

Michigan reimagines its toxic land as a solar-powered future

Michigan wants to clean up its polluted past by turning contaminated industrial sites into a new solar-powered frontier.

Douglas J. Guth reports for Inside Climate News.

Keep reading...Show less
Beige mushrooms grow alongside moss on a wet fallen log.
Credit: Rob/Unsplash

Mushrooms are cleaning up wildfire ruins — and may revive toxic land across America

After the deadly Los Angeles wildfires turned homes into chemical-laced rubble, one scientist is using mushrooms and native plants to detoxify the land and rethink how to clean up after disaster.

Mattha Busby reports for Atmos.

Keep reading...Show less
A group of people at a demonstration holding signs in support of science.
Credit: Photo by Vlad Tchompalov/Unsplash

Trump’s EPA quietly backs off from enforcing pollution laws

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has dramatically scaled back enforcement against major polluters, raising fears about the future of public health protections.

Tom Perkins reports for Grist.

Keep reading...Show less
Red car with EV charger hooked up to it.

Trump administration sued by 17 states over frozen funds for electric vehicle charging network

Seventeen states have filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration for halting billions in federal funding intended to expand the national electric vehicle charging infrastructure.

Sophie Austin and Alexa St. John report for The Associated Press.

Keep reading...Show less
White microscopes on top of black table.

Zeldin’s EPA restructuring could curb climate action and strain environmental protections

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, under Administrator Lee Zeldin, is downsizing staff to 1980s levels despite decades of added environmental responsibilities and growing public health challenges.

Sean Reilly, Jean Chemnick, Ellie Borst, and Miranda Willson report for E&E News.

Keep reading...Show less
A space satellite hovering above the coastline.
Credit: SpaceX/Unsplash

Trump moves to end federal studies on rocket and satellite pollution, raising concerns over Musk’s influence

The Trump administration plans to shut down research led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) into pollution from satellites and rockets that is tied in part to Elon Musk’s expanding space ventures.

Tom Perkins reports for The Guardian.

Keep reading...Show less
From our Newsroom
Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

One facility has emitted cancer-causing chemicals into waterways at levels up to 520% higher than legal limits.

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

"The reality is, we are not exposed to one chemical at a time.”

Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro speaks with the state flag and American flag behind him.

Two years into his term, has Gov. Shapiro kept his promises to regulate Pennsylvania’s fracking industry?

A new report assesses the administration’s progress and makes new recommendations

silhouette of people holding hands by a lake at sunset

An open letter from EPA staff to the American public

“We cannot stand by and allow this to happen. We need to hold this administration accountable.”

wildfire retardants being sprayed by plane

New evidence links heavy metal pollution with wildfire retardants

“The chemical black box” that blankets wildfire-impacted areas is increasingly under scrutiny.

Stay informed: sign up for The Daily Climate newsletter
Top news on climate impacts, solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered to your inbox week days.