Amazon rainforest
Indigenous children in Caquetá, Colombia. (Credit: Stiven Gaviria/Unsplash)

The planet’s largest ecosystems could collapse faster than we thought

Massive, vital ecosystems that have existed for thousands of years could breakdown in just a few decades, according to a new study

If put under the kind of environmental stress increasingly seen on our planet, large ecosystems —such as the Amazon rainforest or the Caribbean coral reefs—could collapse in just a few decades, according to a study released today in Nature Communications.


In the case of Amazon forests, stressors could cause collapse in just 49 years. In Caribbean coral reefs, it could take as little as 15 years.

"The messages here are stark," said lead researcher John Dearing, a professor in physical geography at the University of Southampton, in a statement.

Those estimates come from Dearing and colleagues who examined data on how 42 natural environments—small and large, and on both land and water—have transformed. They found that larger ecosystems may take longer than small ones to collapse, but the rate of their decline is much more rapid.

Ecosystem stress can come in many forms such as climate change, deforestation, overfishing, pollution and ocean acidification.

(Credit: Francesco Ungaro/Unsplash)

"Humanity now needs to prepare for changes in ecosystems that are faster than we previously envisaged through our traditional linear view of the world, including across Earth 's largest and most iconic ecosystems, and the social–ecological systems that they support," the authors wrote.

Larger ecosystems are made up of smaller "sub-systems" of species and habitats, which provide some resilience against rapid change. However, once these smaller systems start to collapse, the new study finds the large ecosystems as a whole fall apart much faster than previously expected.

Researchers pointed to the destructive Australian and Amazon rainforest wildfires as recent examples of this dangerous fast rate of collapse.

"These findings are yet another call for halting the current damage being imposed on our natural environments that pushes ecosystems to their limits," Dearing added.

See the full study in Nature Communications.

A row of solar panels in a desert environment

The 'age of electricity' is here. No one knows what comes next

As the war in Iran upends global fuel markets, two new reports confirm that 2025 was a banner year for renewable energy.

Speech by the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko at the 21st session of the UN Conference on Climate Change
Credit: palinchak/BigStock Photo ID: 110010617

As the UN global climate talks lose momentum, a smaller coalition eyes a fossil fuel exit

More than 50 countries will gather in Colombia to try to develop real-world timetables to phase out oil and gas amid global energy shocks and petrostate stalling.
pumpjacks silhouetted against a setting (or rising) sun

Republican lawmakers attempt to shield big oil from climate lawsuits in ‘alarming’ bills

Climate experts and advocates warn House and Senate bills will protect polluters at the cost of the climate.

An aging oil pump jack in a desolate location

‘Cut fossil fuel industry’s lifeline’: How subsidies and petrochemicals are propping up oil and gas

At Colombia energy summit, experts urge ending fossil subsidies, curbing petrochemicals, limiting industry sway, and boosting clean energy.

A Black man talking to his child in a hospital bed

How Canadians pay for fossil fuels with our bodies

The affordability crisis brings about talk of the price at the gas pump, but more Canadians are realizing the cost climate change is taking on our health.

Orange Hitachi excavator working a coal mine.
Credit: Team Kieselteam_kiesel/Unsplash

Move to relax federal coal ash rules 'potentially concerning'

The proposed loosening of federal coal ash disposal regulations is not expected to affect North Carolina’s robust management rules -- at least for the time being.
A wall of servers in a data center
Credit: philip1652/BigStock Photo ID: 7646803

How Google turned its climate program into an AI booster

A "carbon-intelligent computing" tool has come in handy as the tech giant negotiates with utilities to connect data centers to the grid.
From our Newsroom
Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

One facility has emitted cancer-causing chemicals into waterways at levels up to 520% higher than legal limits.

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

"The reality is, we are not exposed to one chemical at a time.”

Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro speaks with the state flag and American flag behind him.

Two years into his term, has Gov. Shapiro kept his promises to regulate Pennsylvania’s fracking industry?

A new report assesses the administration’s progress and makes new recommendations

silhouette of people holding hands by a lake at sunset

An open letter from EPA staff to the American public

“We cannot stand by and allow this to happen. We need to hold this administration accountable.”

wildfire retardants being sprayed by plane

New evidence links heavy metal pollution with wildfire retardants

“The chemical black box” that blankets wildfire-impacted areas is increasingly under scrutiny.

Stay informed: sign up for The Daily Climate newsletter
Top news on climate impacts, solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered to your inbox week days.