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Climate change to cut South Asia's growth 9 per cent by 2100.
DUPE. ORIGINAL SOURCE IS REUTERS. CAREFUL WITH THIS SITE - EASY TO MISS ORIGINAL SOURCE ATTRIBUTION, LP. Climate change will cut South Asia’s growth almost 9 per cent by the end of the century unless world governments try harder to counter global warming.
August 21, 2014
Climate change will cut South Asia’s growth almost 9 per cent by the end of the century unless world governments try harder to counter global warming, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Tuesday.
The region is home to a fifth of the world’s population and is already vulnerable to climate extremes: seasonal floods, cyclones and droughts that ravage vast swathes of agricultural land and displace hundreds of thousands of people every year.
The costs of countering climate change in South Asia will also increase over time and will be prohibitively high in the long term, the ADB’s “Assessing the Costs of Climate Change and Adaptation in South Asia” report said.
Gross domestic product (GDP) losses are projected at 12.6 per cent for the Maldives, 9.9 per cent for Nepal, 9.4 per cent for Bangladesh and 8.7 per cent for India by 2100.
“Without global deviation from a fossil-fuel-intensive path, South Asia could lose an equivalent of 1.8 per cent of annual GDP by 2050, which will progressively increase to 8.8 per cent by 2100 on the average under the business-as-usual scenario,” it said.
The Maldives will also be hardest hit in the next few decades, with a loss of 2.3 per cent of GDP. Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka will lose 2 per cent, 1.4 per cent, 1.8 per cent, 2.2 per cent, and 1.2 per cent, respectively, by 2050.
Those countries, excluding Sri Lanka, will see more frequent severe weather, damaging property, infrastructure, agriculture and human health, the ADB said. Between 1990 and 2008, more than 750 million people in South Asia were affected by at least one natural disaster, resulting in almost 230,000 deaths, it said.
Coastal areas of Bangladesh, India, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka will see sea level rises that are likely to displace people and adversely affect the tourism and fisheries sectors.
The cost of shielding the region against climate change could be lowered if the world’s governments significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions and, if the rise in global temperatures was kept below 2.5 degrees Celsius, that cost could be nearly halved to about $40.6 billion, or 0.48 per cent of GDP, it said.
South Asia also needs to introduce flood- and saline-resistant crop varieties, better coastal zone management, improved disease surveillance, protection of groundwater and greater use of recycled water.
India, one of the world’s largest agrarian economies, is badly at risk, the report said, and may see GDP losses of up to 8.7 per cent by 2100.
“Agriculture provides employment and livelihood opportunities to most of India’s rural population and changes in temperature and rainfall, and an increase in floods and droughts linked to climate change, would have a devastating impact on people’s food security, incomes, and lives,” ADB Vice-President Bindu Lohani said in a statement.
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Annoying minor floods are increasing on US coasts.
Along much of America's coasts, the type of flooding that is more annoying than dangerous has jumped more than fivefold in the last 50 years, the federal government reported Monday.DUPE. DF. (ON TDC'S FP. ALL MY TEST KEYWORDS PULL UP ORIGINAL POST. DID NOT AUTOWEIGHT, LP)
Seth Borenstein
Along much of America's coasts, the type of flooding that is more annoying than dangerous has jumped more than fivefold in the last 50 years, the federal government reported Monday.
Scientists blame rising seas, saying this is one of the ways global warming is changing everyday lives.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration studied coastal trends in what it calls nuisance flooding, where no one is hurt but people have to deal with flooded roads and buildings.
While scientists and the public spend a lot of time dealing with giant events, such as a hurricane, it is minor floods that people feel more often, though not as severely, said NOAA's Margaret Davidson.
"It's the stuff that keeps you from conducting your business or picking up your kids from school," Davidson said. "It is clear that changing climate and weather patterns will cause us to be increasingly inconvenienced and challenged in our everyday lives."
Oceanographer William Sweet looked at coastal sites across the nation, focusing on 25 places with records that go back beyond 1950. Fifty years ago the 25 sites averaged about 2.5 days of minor flooding a year. Now those places average about 14 days a year.
All 25 of those locations saw increases in the number of minor flood days; 22 of them saw more than doubling of nuisance flooding since the late 1950s and early 1960s. Those 25 cities have also seen sea level rise nearly half a foot since 1963.
The biggest increases are in the mid-Atlantic region. Charleston, South Carolina, San Francisco and Port Isabel, Texas, also showed more than four-fold increases in flooding.
Annapolis, Maryland, had the biggest percentage increase. From 1957 to 1963 it averaged 3.6 minor flood days a year; now it averages more than 39 a year. In 2011, Maryland's capital had 66 minor flood days.
University of Maryland environmental scientist Donald Boesch, who wasn't part of the report, said this type of event is probably more meaningful to people than the bigger and less frequent storms. He noted that sea level has risen about 8 inches in Annapolis since 1971.
"Simply stated, the cause of the increase in inundation frequency is sea level rise attributable to global warming," Boesch said in an email.
Sweet said sinking land and building construction are factors in the increased flooding, but not nearly as much as rising seas.
"It's going to become the new normal," Sweet said. "That is how we can identify with the impacts of sea level rise."
Sweet looked at increase nuisance flooding in Boston; Providence, Rhode Island; New London, Connecticut; Battery Park, Kings Point, and Montauk, New York; Atlantic City and Sandy Hook, New Jersey; Philadelphia; Lewes, Delaware; Baltimore and Annapolis, Maryland; Washington; Norfolk, Virginia; Wilmington, North Carolina; Charleston, South Carolina; Fort Pulaski, Georgia; Fernandina Beach, Key West and Mayport, Florida; Port Isabel, Texas; La Jolla, California; San Francisco, Seattle and Honolulu.
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Online:
NOAA report: https://1.usa.gov/1lOCkHi
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Seth Borenstein can be followed at https://twitter.com/borenbears
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Kudzu that ate U.S. South heads north as climate changes.
Kudzu has been spotted in every county in Georgia, Alabama and North Carolina. It chokes young trees and brings down power lines. Now the plant is creeping northward, wrapping itself around smokestacks in Ohio, overwhelming Illinois backyards and even jumping Lake Erie to establish a beachhead in Ontario, Canada.THIS IS A DUPE. IT'S ALSO BLOOMBERG, NOT BIZWEEK.DF.
As the climate warms, the vine that ate the U.S. South is starting to gnaw at parts of the North, too.
Kudzu, a three-leafed weed first planted in the U.S. more than 100 years ago for the beauty of its purple blossoms, has been spotted in every county in Georgia, Alabama and North Carolina. It chokes young trees, brings down power lines and infests abandoned homes. Now the plant, which can grow as fast as a foot (30 cm) per day, is creeping northward, wrapping itself around smokestacks in Ohio, overwhelming Illinois backyards and even jumping Lake Erie to establish a beachhead in Ontario, Canada.
The invasive plant costs U.S. property owners about $50 million per year in eradication, according to the Nature Conservancy. Other estimates are 10 times higher. Agronomists and landscapers fear what the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Lewis Ziska calls the star of “a bad 1950s science-fiction plant movie” will continue to expand its role, making a nuisance and carrying a disease devastating to soybeans. Climate change is partly to blame, Ziska said, with the average U.S. temperature rising as much as 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit since 1895, most of that since 1970, according to the National Climate Assessment issued by the White House in May.
“The one thing that’s kept these invasives in check has always been cold weather,” said Ziska, a plant physiologist at the USDA’s Agricultural Research Service in Beltsville, Maryland. “As the winters warm as a result of a changing climate, that more or less opens up a Pandora’s box of where these invasives can show up in the future.”
Invasive Species
Invasive species of all types cause an estimated $1.4 trillion in damage worldwide each year, $138 billion of that in the U.S., according to the Nature Conservancy.
Gypsy moths brought from France spread throughout the U.S. and took just three years to strip the leaves off hardwood trees in an area the size of Virginia, according to the U.S. Forest Service. More than 5 million feral swine, descendants of pigs brought to the New World by Spanish explorers, roam forests in at least 35 states, feasting on corn crops and uprooting fences. The Asian citrus psyllid, a gnat-sized insect, has spread a disease killing oranges in Florida, shrinking this year’s crop.
Kudzu was introduced in the U.S. at the Japanese pavilion during the Centennial Exposition in Philadelphia in 1876, according to John Peter Thompson, who represents the Maryland Nursery and Landscape Association on the U.S. government’s Invasive Species Advisory Committee. For decades afterward, landscapers touted its potential as a forage crop and popularized it in the South to prevent soil erosion.
Then it got out of hand.
Poster Child
“By the 1970s, it was the vine eating the South,” Thompson said. “Kudzu becomes the poster child for alien invasive species gone wild.”
Kudzu thrives along roadsides and open areas, and there’s no “silver bullet” to get rid of it, with most people relying on a combination of pesticides and digging up the root crowns, said Nancy Loewenstein, a research fellow at Auburn University in Auburn, Alabama. Its ubiquity in the South landed it on the cover of R.E.M.’s 1983 album, “Murmur.”
Kudzu’s roots are starchy enough to make them a potential biofuel source, similar to corn, according to a paper by researchers led by Rowan Sage of the University of Toronto. Doug Mizell, a 61-year-old self-described tinkerer in Cleveland, Tennessee, said he successfully concocted fuel from kudzu in his garage laboratory in 2007.
Replace Feedstocks
“What we were interested in was replacing feedstocks that were food-based with something with no present intrinsic value, something that actually was the bane of the existence of people in the South,” Mizell said in an interview.
His company, Agro-Gas Industries LLC, tried without success to attract the $5 million from government and private sources Mizell said would enable him to make about 6 million gallons of “kudzunol” a year, he said.
“Maybe our time is yet to come,” Mizell said.
For now, a weed is a weed is a weed.
“I don’t even know another plant like this,” said Randy Westbrooks, an invasive species prevention specialist at Invasive Plant Control Inc. in Whiteville, North Carolina. “If you see it on your property, get rid of it as soon as you see it.”
In Canada, kudzu has been found in a 0.5-hectare (1.23-acre) spot on the shores of Lake Erie near Leamington, Ontario, said Michael Irvine, the province’s vegetative management specialist with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry. It’s “pure speculation” how it got there, he said.
Soybean Rust
The plant is a host for soybean rust, a disease that can be a “serious problem” for farmers, said Thompson of the invasive species council. Last year, soybean rust showed up in 408 counties in 13 states, according to the USDA.
Jerry King said he battled kudzu for 10 years in the backyard of his Thebes, Illinois, home in the 1990s and 2000s. Neighbors planted it and it spread to more than an acre of a wooded area on his property, killing several trees, King said.
“It got down to the point that I thought every year I wouldn’t have any more, and the next year I’d see a little sprig show up,” said King, 78, who has lived on his 8-acre property for 50 years.
In neighboring Indiana, more than 159 kudzu sites have been reported in 39 counties, said Ken Cote of the state’s Department of Natural Resources. Ohio State University Extension educators have found the plant climbing over old smokestacks in an industrial area outside of Cleveland.
“A while ago, most folks would have said it wouldn’t survive in northern Ohio in the colder temperatures, but obviously it had,” said Kathy Smith, the extension’s director of forestry. “It will continue to spread as long as we aren’t paying attention.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Megan Durisin in Chicago at mdurisin1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Millie Munshi at mmunshi@bloomberg.net Bob Ivry
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June a global scorcher as records melt.
DUPE. ORIGINAL SOURCE IS SMH. CAREFUL WITH THIS SITE. EASY TO MISS ORIGINAL SOURCE ATTRIBUTION, LP. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),combined average temperatures over land and sea were 0.72 degrees above the 20th century average of 15.5 degrees, making it the hottest June and adding to the record May and equal record April.
July 22, 2014
Last month was a scorcher for global temperatures with warmth over land and sea breaking records for June while sea-surface temperatures posted their largest departure from long-term averages for any month.
Combined average temperatures over land and sea were 0.72 degrees above the 20th century average of 15.5 degrees, making it the hottest June and adding to the record May and equal record April, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
More striking for climatologists, though, were the sea-surface temperatures. These came in 0.64 degrees above the 20th century average of 16.4 degrees – the first time any month had exceeded the long-run norm by more than 0.6 degrees.
Parts of all major ocean basins notched their warmest June, with almost all the Indian Ocean and regions off south-eastern Australia the hottest on record.
Australia posted its hottest 12 months on record in the year to June, while 2013 was the hottest calendar year in more than a century of records
An El Nino event remains about a 70 per cent chance of forming during the northern summer, which could see more records tumble. The weather pattern sees the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean becoming relatively warm compared with western regions, and typically brings hotter, drier than usual conditions to south-east Asia and Australia.
Australia posted its hottest 12 months on record in the year to June, while 2013 was the hottest calendar year in more than a century of records, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
While June was another month of above-average temperatures, Western Australia and the Northern Territory were cooler than normal – breaking a sequence begun in February in which every state or territory had above-average warmth, NOAA noted.
June was the 352nd month when global temperatures were above the 20th century average – with the last below-average month in February 1985 when Bob Hawke was in his first term as Prime Minister and Ronald Reagan in his second-term in the White House.
Minor cool snap
Apart from a cool snap over the past few days, cities such as Sydney and Melbourne are continuing their run of above-average conditions with temperatures likely to again edge up over the coming week.
So far this year, above-average maximums in Sydney are running at about 2.5-to-one compared with cooler-than-usual weather, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
In the first half of the year, Sydney had 162 days of 20 degrees or warmer conditions, easily ahead of the previous record in 2004 of 157.
After tops of 18 on Tuesday and Wednesday, Sydney can expect 20-21 degree days out to next Monday, with little more than the odd shower over the period. Maximums for the city are running about 2 degrees above the July average of 16.3 degrees so far this month.
Melbourne’s maximums in July have been closer to the long-run average of 13.5 degrees. Aside from a top of 14 degrees forecast for Tuesday and again on Friday, other days should be in the 15-17 range, according to the bureau.
Climate scientists say man-made emissions of greenhouse gases are trapping more solar heat and leading to the global warming that increasing the likelihood that hot rather than cold records will be broken.
The first half of the year tied 2002 as the third-warmest on record for land and sea-surface temperatures, NOAA said.
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The flood next time.
Scientists have spent decades examining all the factors that can influence the rise of the seas, and their research is finally leading to answers. And the more the scientists learn, the more they perceive an enormous risk for the United States.DUPE.DF.
The Flood Next Time
Justin Gillis
The little white shack at the water’s edge in Lower Manhattan is unobtrusive — so much so that the tourists strolling the promenade at Battery Park the other day did not give it a second glance.
Up close, though, the roof of the shed behind a Coast Guard building bristled with antennas and other gear. Though not much bigger than a closet, this facility is helping scientists confront one of the great environmental mysteries of the age.
The equipment inside is linked to probes in the water that keep track of the ebb and flow of the tides in New York Harbor, its readings beamed up to a satellite every six minutes.
While the gear today is of the latest type, some kind of tide gauge has been operating at the Battery since the 1850s, by a government office originally founded by Thomas Jefferson. That long data record has become invaluable to scientists grappling with this question: How much has the ocean already risen, and how much more will it go up?
Scientists have spent decades examining all the factors that can influence the rise of the seas, and their research is finally leading to answers. And the more the scientists learn, the more they perceive an enormous risk for the United States.
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A young kayaker on Manchester Avenue in Norfolk, Va., in October 2012, when Hurricane Sandy caused flooding. Norfolk is struggling to cope with rising seawater and sinking land. Matthew Eich for The New York Times
Much of the population and economy of the country is concentrated on the East Coast, which the accumulating scientific evidence suggests will be a global hot spot for a rising sea level over the coming century.
The detective work has required scientists to grapple with the influence of ancient ice sheets, the meaning of islands that are sinking in the Chesapeake Bay, and even the effect of a giant meteor that slammed into the earth.
The work starts with the tides. Because of their importance to navigation, they have been measured for the better part of two centuries. While the record is not perfect, scientists say it leaves no doubt that the world’s oceans are rising. The best calculation suggests that from 1880 to 2009, the global average sea level rose a little over eight inches.
Rising Sea, Sinking Land
Tide gauges along the East Coast show a long-term increase in relative sea levels, in part because the ocean is rising and in part because areas of the coast are sinking.
That may not sound like much, but scientists say even the smallest increase causes the seawater to eat away more aggressively at the shoreline in calm weather, and leads to higher tidal surges during storms. The sea-level rise of decades past thus explains why coastal towns nearly everywhere are having to spend billions of dollars fighting erosion.
The evidence suggests that the sea-level rise has probably accelerated, to about a foot a century, and scientists think it will accelerate still more with the continued emission of large amounts of greenhouse gases into the air. The gases heat the planet and cause land ice to melt into the sea.
The official stance of the world’s climate scientists is that the global sea level could rise as much as three feet by the end of this century, if emissions continue at a rapid pace. But some scientific evidence supports even higher numbers, five feet and beyond in the worst case.
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Concrete pipes near the water's edge in Norfolk, Va., which is spending millions on raising streets and improving drainage to cope with routine flooding. Matthew Eich for The New York Times
Scientists say the East Coast will be hit harder for many reasons, but among the most important is that even as the seawater rises, the land in this part of the world is sinking. And that goes back to the last ice age, which peaked some 20,000 years ago.
As a massive ice sheet, more than a mile thick, grew over what are now Canada and the northern reaches of the United States, the weight of it depressed the crust of the earth. Areas away from the ice sheet bulged upward in response, as though somebody had stepped on one edge of a balloon, causing the other side to pop up. Now that the ice sheet has melted, the ground that was directly beneath it is rising, and the peripheral bulge is falling.
Some degree of sinking is going on all the way from southern Maine to northern Florida, and it manifests itself as an apparent rising of the sea.
The sinking is fastest in the Chesapeake Bay region. Whole island communities that contained hundreds of residents in the 19th century have already disappeared. Holland Island, where the population peaked at nearly 400 people around 1910, had stores, a school, a baseball team and scores of homes. But as the water rose and the island eroded, the community had to be abandoned.
Eventually just a single, sturdy Victorian house, built in 1888, stood on a remaining spit of land, seeming at high tide to rise from the waters of the bay itself. A few years ago, a Washington Post reporter, David A. Fahrenthold, chronicled its collapse.
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Aside from this general sinking of land up and down the East Coast, some places sit on soft sediments that tend to compress over time, so the localized land subsidence can be even worse than the regional trend. Much of the New Jersey coast is like that. The sea-level record from the Battery has been particularly valuable in sorting out this factor, because the tide gauge there is attached to bedrock and the record is thus immune to sediment compression.
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The last house on Holland Island in Chesapeake Bay, which once had a population of almost 400, finally toppled in October 2010. As the water rose and the island eroded, it had to be abandoned. Astrid Riecken for The Washington Post, via Getty Images
Perhaps the weirdest factor of all pertains to Norfolk, Va., and points nearby. What is now the Tidewater region of Virginia was slammed by a meteor about 35 million years ago — a collision so violent it may have killed nearly everything on the East Coast and sent tsunami waves crashing against the Blue Ridge Mountains. The meteor impact disturbed and weakened the sediments across a 50-mile zone. Norfolk is at the edge of that zone, and some scientists think the ancient cataclysm may be one reason it is sinking especially fast, though others doubt it is much of a factor.
Coastal flooding has already become such a severe problem that Norfolk is spending millions to raise streets and improve drainage. Truly protecting the city could cost as much as $1 billion, money that Norfolk officials say they do not have. Norfolk’s mayor, Paul Fraim, made headlines a couple of years ago by acknowledging that some areas might eventually have to be abandoned.
Up and down the Eastern Seaboard, municipal planners want to know: How bad are things going to get, and how fast?
One of the most ambitious attempts to take account of all known factors came just a few weeks ago from Kenneth G. Miller and Robert E. Kopp of Rutgers University, and a handful of their colleagues. Their calculations, centered on New Jersey, suggest this is not just some problem of the distant future.
People considering whether to buy or rebuild at the storm-damaged Jersey Shore, for instance, could be looking at nearly a foot of sea-level rise by the time they would pay off a 30-year mortgage, according to the Rutgers projections. That would make coastal flooding and further property damage considerably more likely than in the past.
Even if the global sea level rises only eight more inches by 2050, a moderate forecast, the Rutgers group foresees relative increases of 14 inches at bedrock locations like the Battery, and 15 inches along the New Jersey coastal plain, where the sediments are compressing. By 2100, they calculate, a global ocean rise of 28 inches would produce increases of 36 inches at the Battery and 39 inches on the coastal plain.
These numbers are profoundly threatening, and among the American public, the impulse toward denial is still strong. But in towns like Norfolk — where neighborhoods are already flooding repeatedly even in the absence of storms, and where some homes have become unsaleable — people are starting to pay attention.
“In the last couple or three years, there’s really been a change,” said William A. Stiles Jr., head of Wetlands Watch, a Norfolk environmental group. “What you get now is people saying, ‘I’m tired of driving through salt water on my way to work, and I need some solutions.’ ”
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Global warming risks dramatic changes and soon, panel finds.
Continued global warming poses a risk of rapid, drastic changes in some human and natural systems, a scientific panel warned Tuesday, citing the possible collapse of polar sea ice, the potential for a mass extinction of plant and animal life and the threat of immense dead zones in the ocean.THIS IS NYT (LOOK UNDER THE BYLINE). AND IT'S A DUPE. DF.
Justin Gillis / December 04, 2013
Continued global warming poses a risk of rapid, drastic changes in some human and natural systems, a scientific panel warned Tuesday, citing the possible collapse of polar sea ice, the potential for a mass extinction of plant and animal life and the threat of immense dead zones in the ocean.
At the same time, some worst-case fears about climate change that have entered the popular imagination can be ruled out as unlikely, at least over the next century, the panel found. These include a sudden belch of methane from the ocean or the Arctic that would fry the planet, as well as a shutdown of the heat circulation in the Atlantic Ocean that would chill nearby land areas - the fear on which the 2004 movie “The Day After Tomorrow” was loosely based.
In a report released Tuesday, the panel appointed by the National Research Council called for creation of an early warning system to alert society well in advance of changes capable of producing chaos. Nasty climate surprises have occurred already, and more seem inevitable, perhaps within decades, panel members warned. But, they said, little has been done to prepare.
“The reality is that the climate is changing,” said James W.C. White, a paleoclimatologist at the University of Colorado, Boulder, who headed the committee on abrupt impacts of climate change. “It’s going to continue to happen, and it’s going to be part of everyday life for centuries to come - perhaps longer than that.”
While most climate scientists believe that the human release of greenhouse gases has made immense changes in the Earth inevitable, they hope many of these will happen slowly enough that society can adapt.
The document the panel released Tuesday is the latest in a string of reports to consider whether some changes could occur so suddenly as to produce profound social or environmental stress, even collapse. Like previous reports, the new one considers many potential possibilities and dismisses most of them as unlikely - at least in the near term.
But some of the risks are real, the panel found, and in several cases have happened already.
It cited the outbreak of mountain pine beetles in the American West and in Canada. The disappearance of bitterly cold winter nights that used to kill off the beetles has allowed them to ravage tens of millions of acres of forests, damage so severe that it can be seen from space.
Likewise, a drastic decline of summer sea ice in the Arctic has occurred much faster than scientists expected. The panel warned that Arctic sea ice could disappear in the summer within several decades, with severe impacts on wildlife and human communities in the region, and unknown effects on the world’s weather patterns.
Among the greatest risks in coming years, the panel said, is that climate change could greatly increase the extinction rate of plants and animals, essentially provoking the sixth mass extinction in the Earth’s history. The panel said many of the world’s coral reefs, a vital source of fish that feed millions of people, already seemed fated to die within decades.
Another risk, judged to be moderately likely over the coming century, is that rising heat in the upper ocean could result in reduced oxygen in the deep. The worst-case scenario would be the creation of huge zones with too little oxygen for sea creatures to survive, with unknown consequences for the overall ecology of the ocean, the panel said.
It considered the possibility that a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, believed to be especially vulnerable to a warming ocean, would greatly increase the rate of sea level rise. It found that risk, in the near term, to be “unknown but probably low.”
The National Research Council is a nonprofit group in Washington that frequently oversees studies on major scientific questions; this study was commissioned by several government agencies.
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