A new analysis projects that dismantling most of USAID’s global health programs could result in 14 million additional deaths by 2030, including millions of children under five.
In short:
- A study in The Lancet estimates that USAID programs prevented 91 million deaths between 2001 and 2021 in low- and middle-income countries, especially through reductions in HIV/AIDS, malaria, and neglected tropical diseases.
- Researchers warn that cuts announced by the Trump administration could lead to more than 14 million preventable deaths over the next five years if current reductions remain in place.
- U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered the termination of 83% of USAID programs and the agency's merger into the State Department, calling the move a necessary reform.
Key quote:
“The magnitude of USAID’s impact over the past two decades cannot be overstated. These broader interventions have strengthened the resilience of communities, enabling them to thrive well beyond the scope of any single program. The dismantling of these programs now threatens to reverse decades of progress.”
— Davide Rasella, coordinator of the study and professor at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health
Why this matters:
Foreign aid from agencies like USAID has long functioned as a public health safety net for many of the world’s poorest communities, targeting diseases that once killed millions. These programs often provide vaccinations, medical treatment, food assistance, clean water, and sanitation — basic needs that local governments in low-income countries struggle to meet. Cuts to this aid not only risk reversing decades of public health gains, they also threaten global stability. When health systems falter, disease spreads, economies strain, and social unrest grows. Global health is a shared issue — diseases do not respect borders, and neither do the consequences of failing to contain them.
Read more: Trump administration’s shutdown of USAID devastates global conservation efforts
