emissions drivers
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Amazon rainforest at risk of significant transformation by mid-century, study indicates
The critical balance between human activity and the Earth's natural climate regulators is beginning to tip — and not in a good way.
In short:
- A recent study predicts that by 2050, 10% to 47% of the Amazon rainforest could undergo severe ecological changes due to deforestation and climate change, potentially transitioning into savanna grasslands.
- The Amazon, a critical carbon sink for 65 million years, faces threats from global warming, extreme droughts, and fires, risking the release of stored carbon and accelerating global warming.
- Researchers emphasize the urgency of maintaining "safe" ecological thresholds, including limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and reducing deforestation to below 10% to avoid catastrophic ecosystem degradation.
Key quote:
"At the end of this process, our planet will reorganize itself, find a new equilibrium... humans and other species will have to readapt to very unpleasant conditions."
— Bernardo M. Flores, lead author of the study.
Why this matters:
The Amazon's potential collapse into a degraded ecosystem not only threatens biodiversity and Indigenous communities but also diminishes its role in carbon sequestration, exacerbating global warming. The planet’s largest ecosystems could collapse faster than we thought.
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