Climate change farming livestock

How climate change is stunting farm production

"Climate change has basically wiped out about seven years of improvements in agricultural productivity over the past 60 years."

Since 1960 about 21 percent of global agriculture production, including livestock, tree farming, and traditional crops such as corn and soybeans, has been negatively impacted by climate change, according to a new study.


In the research published today in Nature Climate Change agriculture production is defined not just as crop yields or the amount of food or livestock grown, but the overarching energy and input it takes to produce food. This includes manual labor, fertilizers, water, and land. Unsurprisingly, agriculture production worldwide has grown over the last 60 years as a result of improved technologies and more efficiency, primarily in higher income countries.

But the new study provides the latest evidence that climate change—and the subsequent increase in droughts, flooding, and extreme heat—has held back agricultural gains and impeded global food security efforts.

"People don't yet realize that the climate has already changed," Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, a Cornell economist and lead author of the new study, told EHN. "That's not something that we often talk about, just about what the impacts will be 50 years from now."

Climate change wipes out improvements 

Using models similar to those created by climatologists to predict future climate trends, Ortiz-Bobea and his team charted climate data between 1960 and 2020, and compared it to a model where human-caused climate change never occurred.

They compared the "total factor productivity" between models: how does actual agricultural productivity over time compare to what it could have been without climate change?

"Climate change has basically wiped out about seven years of improvements in agricultural productivity over the past 60 years," Ortiz-Bobea said in a statement.

In other words, if the world were to wave a magic wand and halt the planetary changes associated with greenhouse gas emissions and a warming climate, global agricultural production would have reached the level it is today back in 2013, said Ortiz-Bobea.

Ortiz-Bobea compared the situation to someone running with a strong wind at their front: As a runner attempts to make their way to the finish line, the wind is constantly pushing them back. They're making progress but it's slow compared to a windless day. In this scenario, climate change is the strong wind and the runner's progress is farm production growth.

He noted that if climate change gets worse, a growing possibility as countries fail to set commitments that meet Paris Agreement targets, it's only a matter of time until agriculture production stalls. "[Climate change has] been happening for years, and as the magnitude keeps rising and rising it's going to get harder to ignore," he said

Ortiz-Bobea wasn't expecting such a significant difference in farm production between models with and without climate change. "I didn't even think that the result would be statistically significant," he said. "I was expecting something much smaller, something almost imperceptible. But no matter how we sliced the data or looked at different variations of the econometric model, it was pretty consistent that it's a substantial negative effect."

Developing countries suffer

South Africa farming climate change

Farm nursery in Cape Town, South Africa. (Credit: Anaya Katlego/Unsplash)

The greatest climate impacts are seen in countries that are historically warmer such as those in Africa, Latin American, and Asia. As developing regions are often without the same technological advancement or management systems for agriculture, they face the greatest losses as unpredictable weather and warming events threaten crops and livestock. Ortiz-Bobea noted that this issue is as much an equity issue as it is an economic one.

The agriculture sector faces a unique problem in the way of climate change. Historically, the industry has relied on unsustainable practices that further greenhouse gas emissions. One example is in Brazil, where massive Amazon deforestation has taken place in an attempt to grow the country's economy around cattle and soybean farming. The transformation of forests, a crucial carbon sink, into crop lands also contributes to rises in atmospheric carbon levels.

In addition, increased global meat consumption and subsequent cattle production is a common source of methane emissions, a greenhouse gas about 86 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

So what is the best way to produce more food without contributing to a cycle of climate change?

Ortiz-Bobea said that the solution is in a mix of mitigation and adaptation. "Despite all the new, very exciting technologies that we are coming up with like CRISPR, they will still take decades to have an impact." CRISPR is an increasingly popular technology that allows geneticists to modify DNA sequences and gene functions. Often touted as the solution to harmful birth defects in human genomes, conversations have arisen around the use of gene editing to increase food production for a rapidly growing population.

Ortiz-Bobea also highlighted the potential for soil-based strategies. "There are ways to increase soil health that allow soils to improve their water holding capacity, for example," he said. "And so that improves the crop yields and allows farmers to weather the storm, no pun intended there, while at the same time it helps capture carbon from the atmosphere."

Banner photo credit: Leon Ephraïm.Unsplash

a row of flags in front of a building.
Credit: Mmoka/Unsplash

World climate talks resume without U.S. as global negotiators assess new path forward

The United States skipped a major round of United Nations climate negotiations in Bonn, Germany this week, leaving other nations and U.S. civil society groups to navigate the talks without the world's largest fossil fuel producer at the table.

Bob Berwyn reports for Inside Climate News.

Keep reading...Show less
Smoke billows from an industrial chimney at sunset near several homes.

Judge rules EPA overstepped in cutting pollution grants

A federal judge has blocked the Trump administration from canceling $600 million in environmental justice grants aimed at helping underserved communities reduce pollution.

Rachel Frazin reports forThe Hill.

In short:

  • The grants stem from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which set aside $3 billion for environmental justice programs.
  • The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under President Biden had planned to distribute the $600 million through regional groups, which would fund local efforts, before the Trump EPA terminated the grants earlier this year.
  • Judge Adam Abelson ruled the EPA's cancellation exceeded its authority “precisely because they are ‘environmental justice’ programs."

Key quote:
The move included a “lack of any reasoned decision-making, or reasoned explanation.”

— Judge Adam Abelson, U.S. District Court

Why this matters:
Underserved communities often face the greatest environmental health risks and climate impacts. These grants were designed to help local groups respond to long-standing environmental harms and health risks, and canceling them would have cut off vital support just as cleanup efforts were beginning to gain traction. The Trump administration has also attempted to cancel a similar $20 billion program that would fund climate-friendly projects.

coffee mug near open folder with tax withholding paper.

Senate Republicans move to cut clean energy tax credits despite bipartisan benefits

Congressional Republicans are advancing a tax plan that would slash incentives for clean energy and electric vehicles, drawing criticism from advocates and some GOP members whose districts benefit from green investments.

Alexa St. John reports for The Associated Press.

Keep reading...Show less
A stream running through green forested hills.

Brazil moves to auction vast oil blocks despite climate and Indigenous concerns

Brazil is set to auction off oil and gas exploration rights in a massive offshore and Amazon region sale, prompting backlash from Indigenous groups and environmental advocates just months before it hosts the Cop30 climate summit.

Constance Malleret reports for The Guardian.

Keep reading...Show less
An image showing a downpour with a caution sign.

New research links stalled jet stream to rising summer weather extremes

The number of extreme summer weather events driven by trapped atmospheric waves has tripled since 1950 due to climate change, new research shows.

Seth Borenstein reports for The Associated Press.

Keep reading...Show less
Farm machinery helping harvest turnips.

How agribusiness lobbying boosts corporate control over food and climate policy

Industrial agriculture companies spent hundreds of millions lobbying Congress ahead of the stalled farm bill debate, further distancing everyday Americans from decisions shaping the nation’s food systems and climate future.

Brian Calvert reports for Civil Eats.

Keep reading...Show less
Steel mill under a cloudy sky.
Credit: Michi/Pixabay

Steelmaker retreats from clean energy plans as hydrogen costs and politics shift

Cleveland-Cliffs is scaling back plans to build the nation's first green steel plant in Ohio, pivoting away from hydrogen and back to fossil fuels as federal incentives face repeal and political winds change in Washington.

Alexander C. Kaufman reports for Canary Media.

Keep reading...Show less
From our Newsroom
Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

One facility has emitted cancer-causing chemicals into waterways at levels up to 520% higher than legal limits.

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

"The reality is, we are not exposed to one chemical at a time.”

Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro speaks with the state flag and American flag behind him.

Two years into his term, has Gov. Shapiro kept his promises to regulate Pennsylvania’s fracking industry?

A new report assesses the administration’s progress and makes new recommendations

silhouette of people holding hands by a lake at sunset

An open letter from EPA staff to the American public

“We cannot stand by and allow this to happen. We need to hold this administration accountable.”

wildfire retardants being sprayed by plane

New evidence links heavy metal pollution with wildfire retardants

“The chemical black box” that blankets wildfire-impacted areas is increasingly under scrutiny.

Stay informed: sign up for The Daily Climate newsletter
Top news on climate impacts, solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered to your inbox week days.