Climate change could cut global GDP in half by late 21st century

Without urgent action to curb emissions and restore ecosystems, the global economy could shrink by 50% between 2070 and 2090 due to climate-driven disasters, according to a report by actuaries and scientists.

Sandra Laville reports for The Guardian.


In short:

  • A study by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries warns climate impacts like extreme weather and ecosystem collapse could devastate the global economy.
  • Current economic models underestimate risks by ignoring tipping points and systemic failures caused by global heating.
  • The report calls for policymakers to adopt a "planetary solvency" approach to protect the Earth's systems essential for human survival.

Key quote:

“You can’t have an economy without a society, and a society needs somewhere to live.”

— Sandy Trust, lead author of the report

Why this matters:

Climate-related shocks could disrupt food, water and energy systems, threatening billions of lives and global stability. Ignoring these risks perpetuates inadequate policies, leaving humanity unprepared for worsening crises.

A view of a red fisherman's hut on the water in Nova Scotia

The risk and promise of offshore wind energy in Nova Scotia

As the Canadian government considers fast-tracking Wind West Atlantic Energy, Nova Scotia residents hope for economic transformation, while some worry about impacts to seafood industry and marine ecosystems.

A concrete and metal seawall stretching into the distance

‘We are forgotten here’: As NYC builds seawalls, this Queens community feels left behind

More than a decade after New York City promised to reduce flood dangers in Edgemere, residents say the working-class coastal neighborhood remains exposed as major resiliency projects stall and shoreline protections are redirected elsewhere.

An indigenous woman with red paint on her face standing next to a tree

Brazil creates new Indigenous territories during protest-hit COP30

Brazil announced the creation of 10 new Indigenous territories during a protest-filled COP30, expanding protected lands in a move Indigenous leaders say is vital for safeguarding biodiversity and combating climate change.

A red and white street sign saying Changed Priorities Ahead
Credit: Ch_pski/Unsplash

Clamor for change inside the world's COP30 climate negotiations

An existential question hangs over this year's COP30 summit in Brazil: what are the annual U.N. climate negotiations really for?
white and red plastic cup floating in the water

How fossil-fuel companies are driving plastic production and pollution

To keep profits rolling in, oil and gas companies want to turn fossil fuels into a mounting pile of packaging and other plastic products.

A yacht anchored in aqua blue water

A climate summit built on contradiction

At COP30 in Belém, climate delegates slept aboard diesel-powered cruise ships and traveled roads carved through newly deforested land, contradictions that unsettled many, including California’s contingent.

A house completely destroyed by a hurricane

Hurricane Melissa a ‘real-time case study’ of colonialism’s legacies

Hurricane Melissa ravaged rural Jamaica; campaigners at COP30 say the disaster exposes how communities shaped by slavery and colonial extraction now bear the brunt of climate impacts.

From our Newsroom
Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

One facility has emitted cancer-causing chemicals into waterways at levels up to 520% higher than legal limits.

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

"The reality is, we are not exposed to one chemical at a time.”

Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro speaks with the state flag and American flag behind him.

Two years into his term, has Gov. Shapiro kept his promises to regulate Pennsylvania’s fracking industry?

A new report assesses the administration’s progress and makes new recommendations

silhouette of people holding hands by a lake at sunset

An open letter from EPA staff to the American public

“We cannot stand by and allow this to happen. We need to hold this administration accountable.”

wildfire retardants being sprayed by plane

New evidence links heavy metal pollution with wildfire retardants

“The chemical black box” that blankets wildfire-impacted areas is increasingly under scrutiny.

Stay informed: sign up for The Daily Climate newsletter
Top news on climate impacts, solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered to your inbox week days.