Climate change could cut global GDP in half by late 21st century

Without urgent action to curb emissions and restore ecosystems, the global economy could shrink by 50% between 2070 and 2090 due to climate-driven disasters, according to a report by actuaries and scientists.

Sandra Laville reports for The Guardian.


In short:

  • A study by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries warns climate impacts like extreme weather and ecosystem collapse could devastate the global economy.
  • Current economic models underestimate risks by ignoring tipping points and systemic failures caused by global heating.
  • The report calls for policymakers to adopt a "planetary solvency" approach to protect the Earth's systems essential for human survival.

Key quote:

“You can’t have an economy without a society, and a society needs somewhere to live.”

— Sandy Trust, lead author of the report

Why this matters:

Climate-related shocks could disrupt food, water and energy systems, threatening billions of lives and global stability. Ignoring these risks perpetuates inadequate policies, leaving humanity unprepared for worsening crises.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, Milo Werner and Chris Barnard speaking with attendees at the Energy Freedom Tour stop at MIT
Photo credit: Gage Skidmore on Flickr/ Licensed under creative commons: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

18 Trump energy, enviro officials to watch in 2026

Meet the behind-the-scenes officials driving the president's "energy dominance" agenda.
an oil rig in the middle of the ocean.

Opinion: Trump’s five-year plan for offshore oil could be disastrous. Just ask Louisiana

The same industry that will benefit from Trump’s plan already turned the Louisiana coast into a dumping ground, leaving infrastructure behind to decay.  
A red sailboat in the water near icebergs
Credit: Hector John Periquin/Unsplash

Why Greenland matters for a warming world

The fate of the world’s largest island has outsize importance for billions of people on the planet, because as the climate warms, Greenland is losing ice. That has consequences.
Sand sifting slowly through clenched hand.
Photo credit: Narges Pms/Unsplash

Iran’s regime has survived war, sanctions and uprising. Environmental crises may bring it down

Decades of water depletion, dam building and repression of scientists and environmentalists have driven Iran toward ecological crises that are fueling protests rocking the country.
Planet earth on pile of coins - Concept of relationship between money, economic growth and planet earth
Photo credit: Copyright: CalypsoArt/BigStock Photo ID: 439108121

The climate question that economists cannot answer

Models can predict catastrophic or modest damages from climate change, but not which of these futures is coming.
white NOAA research ship travelling during daytime.
Credit: NOAA/Unsplash

Congress moves to preserve NOAA funding for fisheries and climate research

The 2026 funding bill rejects the Trump administration’s request to cut about $1.5 billion from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's budget.

a boat sailing on the sea.

Study tracks fishing boats to see how heat waves affect fish distribution

Marine heat waves have become longer and more frequent along the U.S. West Coast, as elsewhere in the world. But heating doesn’t always lead fish to change their location. A new study suggests a better way to tell if such ecological shifts are happening: Use fishing vessel tracking data.

From our Newsroom
Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

One facility has emitted cancer-causing chemicals into waterways at levels up to 520% higher than legal limits.

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

"The reality is, we are not exposed to one chemical at a time.”

Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro speaks with the state flag and American flag behind him.

Two years into his term, has Gov. Shapiro kept his promises to regulate Pennsylvania’s fracking industry?

A new report assesses the administration’s progress and makes new recommendations

silhouette of people holding hands by a lake at sunset

An open letter from EPA staff to the American public

“We cannot stand by and allow this to happen. We need to hold this administration accountable.”

wildfire retardants being sprayed by plane

New evidence links heavy metal pollution with wildfire retardants

“The chemical black box” that blankets wildfire-impacted areas is increasingly under scrutiny.

Stay informed: sign up for The Daily Climate newsletter
Top news on climate impacts, solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered to your inbox week days.