Climate change could cut global GDP in half by late 21st century

Without urgent action to curb emissions and restore ecosystems, the global economy could shrink by 50% between 2070 and 2090 due to climate-driven disasters, according to a report by actuaries and scientists.

Sandra Laville reports for The Guardian.


In short:

  • A study by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries warns climate impacts like extreme weather and ecosystem collapse could devastate the global economy.
  • Current economic models underestimate risks by ignoring tipping points and systemic failures caused by global heating.
  • The report calls for policymakers to adopt a "planetary solvency" approach to protect the Earth's systems essential for human survival.

Key quote:

“You can’t have an economy without a society, and a society needs somewhere to live.”

— Sandy Trust, lead author of the report

Why this matters:

Climate-related shocks could disrupt food, water and energy systems, threatening billions of lives and global stability. Ignoring these risks perpetuates inadequate policies, leaving humanity unprepared for worsening crises.

An oil drilling pump jack platform with a worker standing on it

Gavin Newsom calls for climate action. But even California is drilling more oil

Gov. Gavin Newsom made green energy a priority. But as President Donald Trump makes oil the focus of U.S. energy policy, even California considers “Drill, baby, drill.”
An illustration of the globe with a giant band aid on it

Podcast: Will we artificially cool the planet?

Professor Ted Parson talks about solar geoengineering as a potential response to severe climate risks, exploring why humanity may need to consider deliberately cooling Earth by spraying reflective particles in the upper atmosphere.

A group of dead trees in a forest

2021 heat dome left Rhode Island-sized damage in Oregon's, Washington’s western forests

A study from Oregon State University and the U.S. Forest Service found the four-day extreme heat event scorched more than 1,000 square miles of tree canopy.

A person walking through a flooded underpass

Bill Gates said the quiet part out loud

Bill Gates has reignited debate over a climate agenda that prioritizes emissions cuts over the immediate needs of countries already facing deadly climate impacts.

Polluted water coming from a pipe

Oily waste from Smitty’s Supply disaster will be injected under Jefferson Parish landfill

Oily water and spilled petrochemicals from the Smitty’s Supply explosion have been handled at three different sites, and state officials have granted an emergency request to bring some of it a Jefferson Parish landfill. 
white smoke coming out from power plant on a green hill.

World still on track for catastrophic 2.6C temperature rise, report finds

Fossil fuel emissions have hit a record high while many nations have done too little to avert deadly global heating.

a herd of cattle standing next to each other

At COP30, Brazilian meat giant JBS recommends climate policy

Meat giant JBS is steering a private-sector “food systems” push to shape climate policy at COP30, promoting productivity-focused recommendations.

From our Newsroom
Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

One facility has emitted cancer-causing chemicals into waterways at levels up to 520% higher than legal limits.

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

"The reality is, we are not exposed to one chemical at a time.”

Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro speaks with the state flag and American flag behind him.

Two years into his term, has Gov. Shapiro kept his promises to regulate Pennsylvania’s fracking industry?

A new report assesses the administration’s progress and makes new recommendations

silhouette of people holding hands by a lake at sunset

An open letter from EPA staff to the American public

“We cannot stand by and allow this to happen. We need to hold this administration accountable.”

wildfire retardants being sprayed by plane

New evidence links heavy metal pollution with wildfire retardants

“The chemical black box” that blankets wildfire-impacted areas is increasingly under scrutiny.

Stay informed: sign up for The Daily Climate newsletter
Top news on climate impacts, solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered to your inbox week days.