Climate change could shrink global economy by half by 2070

Without major emissions cuts, climate change could reduce global GDP by up to 50% by late this century, according to economic modeling from the University of Exeter and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.

Jenni Doering reports for Living on Earth.

In short:

Researchers project that if warming reaches 3 to 4 degrees Celsius by 2070, large parts of the planet could become uninhabitable, triggering social and economic collapse.
The study challenges earlier economic models that underestimated climate risk by assuming most industries would remain unaffected.
Climate tipping points — such as ice sheet loss and shifts in ocean circulation — could severely disrupt food production and global stability.

Key quote:

“We’re really trying to look at the existential...risks to the viability of life or economy as we know it.”

— Tim Lenton, professor at the University of Exeter

Why this matters:

A 50% drop in global GDP would mean widespread economic and social upheaval, making the 2008 financial crisis seem minor in comparison. The loss of productive land, disrupted food systems, and climate-driven migration could destabilize entire regions. Insurance companies, long seen as bellwethers of financial risk, are already retreating from areas deemed too vulnerable to climate disasters.

This signals a deeper problem: The global economy is not built to withstand the shocks that a rapidly warming planet is delivering. The study’s findings reinforce a growing consensus among economists and policymakers that climate change is no longer just an environmental challenge. It is an existential threat to economic stability.

www.loe.org

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