Industrial buildings and smoke pouring out of a smokestack in the distance.

Climate change could shrink global economy by half by 2070

Without major emissions cuts, climate change could reduce global GDP by up to 50% by late this century, according to economic modeling from the University of Exeter and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.

Jenni Doering reports for Living on Earth.


In short:

  • Researchers project that if warming reaches 3 to 4 degrees Celsius by 2070, large parts of the planet could become uninhabitable, triggering social and economic collapse.
  • The study challenges earlier economic models that underestimated climate risk by assuming most industries would remain unaffected.
  • Climate tipping points — such as ice sheet loss and shifts in ocean circulation — could severely disrupt food production and global stability.

Key quote:

“We’re really trying to look at the existential...risks to the viability of life or economy as we know it.”

— Tim Lenton, professor at the University of Exeter

Why this matters:

A 50% drop in global GDP would mean widespread economic and social upheaval, making the 2008 financial crisis seem minor in comparison. The loss of productive land, disrupted food systems, and climate-driven migration could destabilize entire regions. Insurance companies, long seen as bellwethers of financial risk, are already retreating from areas deemed too vulnerable to climate disasters.

This signals a deeper problem: The global economy is not built to withstand the shocks that a rapidly warming planet is delivering. The study’s findings reinforce a growing consensus among economists and policymakers that climate change is no longer just an environmental challenge. It is an existential threat to economic stability.

Read more: Global climate impacts are set to drastically reduce average income levels by 2050

A piece of wood with green leaves in the shape of the world's continents on it.

Trump administration’s shutdown of USAID devastates global conservation efforts

After a sweeping dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development, conservation projects protecting wildlife, forests, and ecosystems across dozens of countries are collapsing due to funding cuts.

Adam Welz reports for Yale Environment 360.

Keep reading...Show less
Sunrise in the woods

Get our Good News newsletter

Get the best positive, solutions-oriented stories we've seen on the intersection of our health and environment, FREE every Tuesday in your inbox. Subscribe here today. Keep the change tomorrow.

Two nuclear towers in the distance with smoke emitting from them

Trump’s nuclear revival plan faces obstacles at Tennessee Valley Authority

The Trump administration's push for a nuclear energy renaissance faces internal turbulence at the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), with leadership shake-ups and tariff policies threatening to slow progress rather than speed it up.

Gautama Mehta and Katie Myers report for Grist.

Keep reading...Show less
A woman looks at a handmade journal that includes pressed flowers and leaves.

Independent bookshops are helping people fight climate despair with the right stories

In the UK, three indie bookstores are blending climate action and storytelling to help readers find hope, connection, and purpose in the face of planetary crisis.

Lottie Limb reports for Euronews.

Keep reading...Show less
A river runs between hills covered with trees displaying fall foliage colors.
Credit: Photo by Liz Guertin/Unsplash

Maryland’s conservation streak shows how far a small state can go

Maryland just became the first U.S. state to meet the “30 by 30” conservation goal — six years early — and it's already aiming for 40% by 2040.

Cara Buckley reports for The New York Times.

Keep reading...Show less
A woman stands in front of a garbage dump next to an abandoned building holding a poster that says "there is no planet b."

Environmental groups brace for a new era of fear and federal targeting

As the Trump administration sharpens its attacks on environmental nonprofits, Earthjustice president Abigail Dillen warns the movement is under threat like never before.

Sharon Lerner reports for ProPublica.

Keep reading...Show less
A copy of Pope Francis' Laudato Si encyclical propped against a wooden pew in a church with the pope's photo on the cover.
Credit: Johan Bergström-Allen / www.carmelite.org/FlickrCreative Commons Attribution 2.0 no restrictions

Pope Francis made climate change a moral crisis. Following his death, the world needs a new voice

Pope Francis turned the climate crisis into a global moral reckoning, but as the planet warms, his loss leaves a gaping hole in the fight for climate justice.

Chico Harlan reports for The Washington Post.

Keep reading...Show less
blue and white solar panels on green grass.

Clean energy tech is outpacing politics and reshaping the global power landscape

Even as the Trump administration moves to expand fossil fuels and slash climate regulations, clean energy industries are accelerating beyond the reach of political backlash.

The Vox climate team sets out to analyze the clean energy transition in a special, multi-story project.

Keep reading...Show less
From our Newsroom
Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

"The reality is, we are not exposed to one chemical at a time.”

Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro speaks with the state flag and American flag behind him.

Two years into his term, has Gov. Shapiro kept his promises to regulate Pennsylvania’s fracking industry?

A new report assesses the administration’s progress and makes new recommendations

silhouette of people holding hands by a lake at sunset

An open letter from EPA staff to the American public

“We cannot stand by and allow this to happen. We need to hold this administration accountable.”

wildfire retardants being sprayed by plane

New evidence links heavy metal pollution with wildfire retardants

“The chemical black box” that blankets wildfire-impacted areas is increasingly under scrutiny.

People  sitting in an outdoors table working on a big sign.

Op-ed: Why funding for the environmental justice movement must be anti-racist

We must prioritize minority-serving institutions, BIPOC-led organizations and researchers to lead environmental justice efforts.

joe biden

Biden finalizes long-awaited hydrogen tax credits ahead of Trump presidency

Responses to the new rules have been mixed, and environmental advocates worry that Trump could undermine them.

Stay informed: sign up for The Daily Climate newsletter
Top news on climate impacts, solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered to your inbox week days.