Forecasts warn of intensifying hurricane season as NOAA faces deep budget cuts

Scientists are bracing for a dangerous 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, even as the Trump administration pushes steep cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the federal agency responsible for storm forecasting.

Matt Simon reports for Grist.


In short:

  • Forecasters from Colorado State University and AccuWeather expect an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, driven by unusually warm ocean temperatures, with up to 10 named storms and at least four major hurricanes likely.
  • The Trump administration, through the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), plans to cut NOAA’s budget by 25% and eliminate its research arm, jeopardizing critical forecasting tools like buoys, weather balloons, and hurricane-hunting aircraft.
  • Scientists fear these cuts will reduce forecast accuracy and delay warnings, especially during rapid intensification events when hurricanes quickly strengthen, threatening lives and infrastructure.

Key quote:

“Now we are nervous if those data will be provided — and will be provided on time — from NOAA.”

— Xubin Zeng, director of the Climate Dynamics and Hydrometeorology Center at the University of Arizona

Why this matters:

NOAA's data help scientists warn communities about deadly hurricanes, track flooding threats, and prepare emergency responses. In recent years, the Atlantic has grown hotter, fueling stronger and more erratic storms. Hurricanes that rapidly intensify — jumping in strength overnight — are becoming more common and more dangerous. Accurate forecasts don’t just inform storm tracks; they guide evacuations, protect hospitals and nursing homes, and limit economic damage. If NOAA’s capacity is gutted, warning systems could fail at the worst possible moment. Public safety would hinge on outdated models or privatized forecasting that may not reach vulnerable populations. Disabling NOAA’s infrastructure in the face of escalating climate risks could mean the difference between life and death for those in the path of extreme weather.

Related:

An overhead view of two rice and tofu bowls

Opinion: Plant-based diets can deliver climate and health benefits at the same time

Many choices we ask people make to help the climate don’t reveal immediate results, but we found that changing diets can have a climate benefit and quickly reduce some health risks.

A view of a prison yard

The ‘lionesses’ who sued to get air conditioning in every Texas prison — and won

A group led by formerly incarcerated women spent years advocating for those trapped inside prison walls during Texas’ hot summers.

Two people standing at voting booths filling out ballots
Credit: Ahmed/Unsplash+

Meet the Michigan climate candidate on Trump’s radar

Sunrise Movement co-founder William Lawrence’s toss-up congressional race has drawn progressives, data center critics and the president.

A view of smokestacks emitting smoke into the air

China keeps its overseas coal promise, but the demand continues

It has been five years since China promised the United Nations to stop funding overseas coal projects.
A view of a city street with cars and tall buildings

Trump administration plans to gut clean car rules

New fuel-economy standards, which President Trump said he finalized Saturday, would kill a federal effort to speed the transition to electric vehicles.
A field of green wheat stalks under a gray sky

British farmers saw ‘disappointing’ harvest and lower crop yields after hottest summer on record

Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board warned that the quality of the crops harvested has also been impacted.

A car's fuel gauge showing empty

How Trump is unintentionally helping the world’s climate

While the president remains a climate-change denier, the war with Iran has triggered an unforeseen benefit in the fight against global warming.
From our Newsroom
Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

One facility has emitted cancer-causing chemicals into waterways at levels up to 520% higher than legal limits.

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

"The reality is, we are not exposed to one chemical at a time.”

Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro speaks with the state flag and American flag behind him.

Two years into his term, has Gov. Shapiro kept his promises to regulate Pennsylvania’s fracking industry?

A new report assesses the administration’s progress and makes new recommendations

silhouette of people holding hands by a lake at sunset

An open letter from EPA staff to the American public

“We cannot stand by and allow this to happen. We need to hold this administration accountable.”

wildfire retardants being sprayed by plane

New evidence links heavy metal pollution with wildfire retardants

“The chemical black box” that blankets wildfire-impacted areas is increasingly under scrutiny.

Stay informed: sign up for The Daily Climate newsletter
Top news on climate impacts, solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered to your inbox week days.