Forecasts warn of intensifying hurricane season as NOAA faces deep budget cuts

Scientists are bracing for a dangerous 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, even as the Trump administration pushes steep cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the federal agency responsible for storm forecasting.

Matt Simon reports for Grist.


In short:

  • Forecasters from Colorado State University and AccuWeather expect an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, driven by unusually warm ocean temperatures, with up to 10 named storms and at least four major hurricanes likely.
  • The Trump administration, through the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), plans to cut NOAA’s budget by 25% and eliminate its research arm, jeopardizing critical forecasting tools like buoys, weather balloons, and hurricane-hunting aircraft.
  • Scientists fear these cuts will reduce forecast accuracy and delay warnings, especially during rapid intensification events when hurricanes quickly strengthen, threatening lives and infrastructure.

Key quote:

“Now we are nervous if those data will be provided — and will be provided on time — from NOAA.”

— Xubin Zeng, director of the Climate Dynamics and Hydrometeorology Center at the University of Arizona

Why this matters:

NOAA's data help scientists warn communities about deadly hurricanes, track flooding threats, and prepare emergency responses. In recent years, the Atlantic has grown hotter, fueling stronger and more erratic storms. Hurricanes that rapidly intensify — jumping in strength overnight — are becoming more common and more dangerous. Accurate forecasts don’t just inform storm tracks; they guide evacuations, protect hospitals and nursing homes, and limit economic damage. If NOAA’s capacity is gutted, warning systems could fail at the worst possible moment. Public safety would hinge on outdated models or privatized forecasting that may not reach vulnerable populations. Disabling NOAA’s infrastructure in the face of escalating climate risks could mean the difference between life and death for those in the path of extreme weather.

Related:

The River Thames and ferris wheel next to a large building on a sunny day

Powered by sunshine: London fruit and veg market now home to the city’s largest rooftop solar project

A sprawling London fresh produce market is producing its own power thanks to record-breaking rooftop solar.
Side view of red seats at a movie theater

The climate disaster behind 'The Odyssey'

New research finds the Bronze Age collapse of civilization emerged from water scarcity. Are droughts today pushing us toward a collapse of our own?
A pathway made from overlapping cement arches

The circular chemistry that could make cement carbon-negative

By closing the loop on the same reaction that makes cement, researchers say plants could capture more carbon dioxide than they release.

A red, high-speed passenger train hurtling down the tracks

Sun-Ways is testing out train track solar farms

A pilot program placing solar panels between the rails has proven successful enough that the idea is spreading to Italy, France, and Korea.

Hanging glacier with meltwater and snow sloughing from the tongue

Climate crisis could be destabilizing mountain areas like Nepal, experts warn

Unusual heat this year may have melted ice and thawed bonds that hold glaciers in place — leading to catastrophe.

A black woman sitting on a sofa with a blue hand fan

As Texans’ electricity costs soar and temperatures rise, a public health crisis brews

This is the first installment of “Powerless,” a series from Public Health Watch examining how rising temperatures and skyrocketing electricity costs are placing Texans in danger.
Offshore wind turbines against a setting sun

$900M from a canceled wind deal will benefit a Trump donor

The Trump administration’s latest deal to abandon offshore wind projects and boost investment in fossil fuels is set to deliver a windfall to a private equity firm run by one of the president's major donors.

From our Newsroom
Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

One facility has emitted cancer-causing chemicals into waterways at levels up to 520% higher than legal limits.

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

"The reality is, we are not exposed to one chemical at a time.”

Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro speaks with the state flag and American flag behind him.

Two years into his term, has Gov. Shapiro kept his promises to regulate Pennsylvania’s fracking industry?

A new report assesses the administration’s progress and makes new recommendations

silhouette of people holding hands by a lake at sunset

An open letter from EPA staff to the American public

“We cannot stand by and allow this to happen. We need to hold this administration accountable.”

wildfire retardants being sprayed by plane

New evidence links heavy metal pollution with wildfire retardants

“The chemical black box” that blankets wildfire-impacted areas is increasingly under scrutiny.

Stay informed: sign up for The Daily Climate newsletter
Top news on climate impacts, solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered to your inbox week days.