Forecasts warn of intensifying hurricane season as NOAA faces deep budget cuts

Scientists are bracing for a dangerous 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, even as the Trump administration pushes steep cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the federal agency responsible for storm forecasting.

Matt Simon reports for Grist.


In short:

  • Forecasters from Colorado State University and AccuWeather expect an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, driven by unusually warm ocean temperatures, with up to 10 named storms and at least four major hurricanes likely.
  • The Trump administration, through the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), plans to cut NOAA’s budget by 25% and eliminate its research arm, jeopardizing critical forecasting tools like buoys, weather balloons, and hurricane-hunting aircraft.
  • Scientists fear these cuts will reduce forecast accuracy and delay warnings, especially during rapid intensification events when hurricanes quickly strengthen, threatening lives and infrastructure.

Key quote:

“Now we are nervous if those data will be provided — and will be provided on time — from NOAA.”

— Xubin Zeng, director of the Climate Dynamics and Hydrometeorology Center at the University of Arizona

Why this matters:

NOAA's data help scientists warn communities about deadly hurricanes, track flooding threats, and prepare emergency responses. In recent years, the Atlantic has grown hotter, fueling stronger and more erratic storms. Hurricanes that rapidly intensify — jumping in strength overnight — are becoming more common and more dangerous. Accurate forecasts don’t just inform storm tracks; they guide evacuations, protect hospitals and nursing homes, and limit economic damage. If NOAA’s capacity is gutted, warning systems could fail at the worst possible moment. Public safety would hinge on outdated models or privatized forecasting that may not reach vulnerable populations. Disabling NOAA’s infrastructure in the face of escalating climate risks could mean the difference between life and death for those in the path of extreme weather.

Related:

Solar panels & wind turbines against setting sun

U.S. Interior Department bends on solar, but wind energy on public lands remains stalled

Most of the wind farms under consideration by the Biden administration’s Bureau of Land Management are no longer in the permitting pipeline.

Two wooden chairs next to a field that has a solar shade panel over it

How Ann Arbor, Michigan, is creating its own clean energy utility

Investor-owned utilities have been slow to ditch oil and gas. The city of Ann Arbor plans to boost access to renewables through a new dual-service model.
Solar panels juxtaposed against transmission lines and wind turbines
Credit: kckate16/ BigStock Photo ID: 478351339

The German village running on its own juice

While war in the Middle East sends oil prices soaring and households brace for higher bills, one tiny German village has spent 30 years making itself immune to exactly this kind of shock.
Man installing solar panels on a roof

How Pakistan’s people-led solar boom is easing impact of Middle East energy crisis

Falling costs and government incentives make solar an attractive option for many, reducing the need for gas.

A view of a wind turbine from below
Credit: A. C./Unsplash+

Aging wind turbines are a massive clean energy opportunity

Upgrading existing wind farms is a climate win hiding in plain sight, according to a new nationwide analysis.

A marshland environment with a shoreline and a duck sitting at the edge of the water

Big Oil knew it was wrecking Louisiana’s coast, records show

Parish lawsuits, including one in front of the U.S. Supreme Court, could make oil giants pay to restore the state’s vanishing marshes.

Melting ice sheets Antarctica

How a melting glacier in Antarctica could affect tens of millions around the globe

A collapse of the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica would sharply accelerate sea-level rise in coastal cities.
From our Newsroom
Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

One facility has emitted cancer-causing chemicals into waterways at levels up to 520% higher than legal limits.

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

"The reality is, we are not exposed to one chemical at a time.”

Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro speaks with the state flag and American flag behind him.

Two years into his term, has Gov. Shapiro kept his promises to regulate Pennsylvania’s fracking industry?

A new report assesses the administration’s progress and makes new recommendations

silhouette of people holding hands by a lake at sunset

An open letter from EPA staff to the American public

“We cannot stand by and allow this to happen. We need to hold this administration accountable.”

wildfire retardants being sprayed by plane

New evidence links heavy metal pollution with wildfire retardants

“The chemical black box” that blankets wildfire-impacted areas is increasingly under scrutiny.

Stay informed: sign up for The Daily Climate newsletter
Top news on climate impacts, solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered to your inbox week days.