Recent estimates in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study show that the combination of air pollution, poor water sanitation and exposure to lead and radon is responsible for 9 million premature deaths each year.
Yet this figure captures only a fraction of the real burden of toxic pollutants in the environment, and it doesn't consider climate change, according to a community of scientists led by researchers in the University of Washington Department of Environmental & Occupational Health Sciences (DEOHS) in the School of Public Health.
In a new paper, researchers highlight key challenges that limit the scope and accuracy of current GBD estimates for environmental health risk factors and propose strategies to clarify the true environmental footprint on health from chemical pollution and climate change.
The paper was published as a commentary in Environmental Health Perspectives on Oct. 18.
Measuring climate change and health risk
"There are currently no GBD estimates related to a host of globally distributed toxic pollutants or to climate change, which is arguably the greatest environmental threat of them all," said Dr. Howard Hu, corresponding author and an affiliate professor in DEOHS.
Specifically, climate change is not considered in a new type of GBD analysis, published in The Lancet in 2018, that forecasts health and drivers of health on a global scale over the next 20 years.
One reason for this is that climate change cannot easily be captured as a distinct exposure, and there are unique data and modeling limitations, according to the commentary. Additionally, "it is unclear what the baseline level for climate risk should be, given its unique status as a constantly changing global system," the researchers wrote.
The GBD—coordinated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)—provides a tool to quantify health loss from hundreds of diseases, injuries and risk factors to help provide an evidence base for decision-making. The GBD incorporated a limited set of climate risks in its 2000 analysis but has since opted not to include climate risk in recent reports.
The new GBD-Pollution and Health Initiative
DEOHS Affiliate Professor Howard Hu (Credit: deohs.washington.edu)
To close the gap in estimates of environmental health-related disease burden, including those attributed to climate change, Hu and others came together to form the GBD-Pollution and Health Initiative (PHI). The initiative involves key partners from UW, IHME, the University of Toronto and the National Institute for Environmental Health Sciences.
It is based in DEOHS and draws on expertise from around the world, including George Washington University's Milken Institute School of Public Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, McGill University and New York University.
"The thinking behind the initiative is that many countries, especially those that are low- or middle-income and are striving to meet the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, have the opportunity to avoid some of the environmental tragedies that have plagued high-income countries and to engage in 'smart' development," Hu said.
"To do so, policymakers need to know the identity, magnitude and potential consequences of the environmental risk factors specific to their country."
A research agenda proposed in the commentary stems from a 2018 GBD-PHI workshop. According to Hu, a workshop orchestrator, current GBD estimates only count environmental impacts from air pollution, lead, radon and select occupational exposures.
What is missing are estimates related to climate change and other pollutants "that are highly toxic, globally distributed and arguably having significant impacts on health or functioning," such as mercury, arsenic, pesticides, phthalates and polychlorinated biphenyls or PCBs.
Measurement challenges
Another challenge is that most GBD data come from high-income countries, which have lower levels of pollution compared to low- and middle-income countries.
Also, current GBD metrics rely on outcomes that meet diagnostic criteria, "an approach that lacks the ability to fully capture critical sub-clinical effects such as moderate reductions in IQ from neurotoxicants like lead or mercury," Hu said.
Such impacts are only counted in the GBD if IQ loss results in intellectual disability (IQ less than 85). However, modest reductions in IQ are well known to have major impacts on a person's capacity for learning and the amount of money they may make in their lifetime, upstream factors that could influence health.
Since sub-clinical effects have major implications for individuals and society but are not fully captured by GBD methods, the commentary suggests, as an alternative, measuring these effects based on other metrics such as those for human capital developed recently by IHME and the World Bank. This metric was described in The Lancet in 2018.
The GBD-PHI is looking to leverage existing research and stimulate collaborations with environmental health scientists, particularly those who can address the lack of data on exposures to pollutants in low- and middle-income countries.
"We share the desire to more completely capture the burden associated with environmental risk factors, and we have continued to add new environmental risk factors and new risk-outcome pairs with each new iteration of the GBD study," said Jeffrey Stanaway, assistant professor of health metrics sciences at IHME and a co-author of the commentary.
"We have begun working on estimating climate-related risks and are including sub-optimal temperature as a new risk factor for GBD 2019. Unfortunately, the limited data for most chemical pollutants, particularly with regard to exposure levels in the general population outside of high-income countries, precludes their inclusion in the analysis at this point. Hopefully, the increased collaboration emerging from this initiative will help us to identify new data and develop new methods that will allow us to work through some of these challenges."
Said Rachel Shaffer, lead author of the commentary and a DEOHS doctoral student in environmental toxicology: "The GBD is highly influential in the global public health policy arena. It is crucial that environmental exposures are more fully incorporated and considered in future iterations of the GBD so governments and policymakers can make appropriate decisions to allocate resources and improve the health of their populations."
The heat wave has primarily impacted California, Oregon, and Arizona, resulting in record-breaking temperatures and multiple fatalities.
Most victims were elderly and found in their homes; other deaths include a motorcyclist in Death Valley and a baby in Arizona.
Heat-related deaths are often underreported, as they are frequently attributed to other causes such as heart failure
Key quote:
“The extreme nature of the heat last summer and this summer has meant it’s in the forefront of everyone’s mind, including those in charge of classifying health outcomes and deaths."
— Ashley Ward, director of the Heat Policy Innovation Hub at Duke University
Why this matters:
As the climate crisis intensifies, the frequency and severity of heatwaves are expected to increase, posing a serious threat to public health and the environment. This brutal reminder of our changing climate heightens the pressure for action to mitigate the impacts of global warming. Read more: We are undercounting heat-related deaths in the US.
CAMERON PARISH, La. — Late into the night, John Allaire watches the facility next to his home shoot 300-foot flares from stacks.
He lives within eyesight of southwest Louisiana’s salty shores, where, for decades, he’s witnessed nearly 200 feet of land between it and his property line disappear into the sea. Two-thirds of the land was rebuilt to aid the oil and gas industry’s LNG expansion. LNG — shorthand for liquified natural gas – is natural gas that's cooled to liquid form for easier storage or transport; it equates to 1/600th the volume of natural gas in a gaseous state. It’s used to generate electricity, or fuel stove tops and home heaters, and in industrial processes like manufacturing fertilizer.
In the U.S., at least 30 new LNG terminal facilities have been constructed or proposed since 2016, according to the
Oil and Gas Watch project. Louisiana and Texas’ Gulf Coast, where five facilities are already operating, will host roughly two-thirds of the new LNG terminals – meaning at least 22 Gulf Coast LNG facilities are currently under construction, were recently approved to break ground or are under further regulatory review.
Although the U.S. didn’t ship LNG until 2016, when a freight tanker left, a few miles from where Cameron Parish’s LNG plants are today, last year the country became the global leader in LNG production and export volume, leapfrogging exporters like Qatar and Australia. The
EIA’s most recent annual outlook estimated that between the current year and 2050, U.S. LNG exports will increase by 152%.
Allaire, 68, watches how saltwater collects where rainwater once fed the area’s diminishing coastal wetlands. “We still come down here with the kids and set out the fishing rods. It's not as nice as it used to be,” he told
Environmental Health News (EHN).
That intimacy with nature drew Allaire to the area when he purchased 311 acres in 1998. An environmental engineer and 30-year oil and gas industry veteran, he helped lead environmental assessments and manage clean-ups, and although retired, he still works part-time as an environmental consultant with major petroleum companies. With a lifetime of oil and gas industry expertise, he’s watched the industry's footprint spread across Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico’s fragile shores and beyond. Now that the footprints are at the edge of his backyard, Allaire is among a cohort of organizers, residents and fisher-folk in the region mobilizing to stop LNG facility construction. For him, the industry’s expansion usurps the right-or-wrong ethics he carried across his consulting career. For anglers, oil and gas infrastructure has destroyed fishing grounds and prevented smaller vessels from accessing the seafood-rich waters of the Calcasieu River.
From the view of Allaire’s white pickup truck as he drives across his property to the ocean’s shore, he points to where a new LNG facility will replace marshlands. Commonwealth LNG intends to clear the land of trees and then backfill the remaining low-lying field.
“You see what’s happening with the environment,” Allaire said. “When the facts change, I got to change my mind about what we’re doing.”
Community bands together
John Allaire, left, purchased 311 acres in Cameron Parish in 1998, and has watched the oil and gas industry's footprint spread to his property.
Credit: John Allaire
During an Earth Day rally in April, community members gathered in the urban center of Lake Charles to demand local oil and gas industries help deliver a safer, healthier future for all. In between live acts by artists performing south Louisiana’s quintessential zydeco musical style, speakers like James Hiatt, a Calcasieu Parish native with ties to Cameron Parish and a Healthy Gulf organizer, and RISE St. James organizer Sharon Lavigne, who’s fighting against LNG development in rural Plaquemines Parish near the city of New Orleans, asked the nearly 100 in attendance to imagine a day in which the skyline isn’t dotted by oil and gas infrastructure.
Not long ago, it was hard to imagine an Earth Day rally in southwest Louisiana at all. For decades, the area has been decorated with fossil fuel infrastructure. Sunsets on some days are highlighted by the chemicals in the air; at night, thousands of facilities’ lights dot the dark sky.
“It takes a lot of balls for people to start speaking up,” Shreyas Vasudevan, a campaign researcher with the Louisiana Bucket Brigade, told EHN in the days after the rally. In a region with its history and economy intertwined with oil and gas production, “you can get a lot of social criticism – or ostracization, as well – even threats to your life.”
Many are involved in local, regional and national advocacy groups, including the Louisiana Bucket Brigade, Healthy Gulf, the Sierra Club, the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Turtle Island Restoration Network, the Center for Biological Diversity and the National Audubon Society.
“You see what’s happening with the environment,” Allaire said. “When the facts change, I got to change my mind about what we’re doing.” - John Allaire, environmental engineer and 30-year oil and gas industry veteran
But environmental organizers are fighting a multi-billion-dollar industry with federal and state winds at its back. And LNG’s federal support is coupled with existing state initiatives.
Under outgoing Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards — a term-limited Democrat — the state pledged a goal of reaching net-zero greenhouse emissions by 2050. Natural gas, which the LNG industry markets as a cleaner-burning alternative, is cited as one of the state’s solutions. Louisiana is the only state that produces a majority of its carbon emissions through fossil fuels refining industries, like LNG, rather than energy production or transportation. Governor Edwards’ office did not return EHN’s request for comment.
This accommodating attitude towards oil and gas industries has resulted in a workforce that’s trained to work in LNG refining facilities across much of the rural Gulf region, said Steven Miles, a lawyer at Baker Botts LLP and a fellow at the Baker Institute’s Center on Energy Studies. Simultaneously, anti-industrialization pushback is lacking. It’s good news for industries like LNG.
“The bad news,” Miles added. “[LNG facilities] are all being jammed in the same areas.”
One rallying cry for opponents is local health. The Environmental Integrity Project found that LNG export terminals emit chemicals like carbon monoxide –potentially deadly– and sulfur dioxide, of which the American Lung Association says long-term exposure can lead to heart disease, cancer, and damage to internal or female reproductive organs.
An analysis of emissions monitoring reports by the advocacy group the Louisiana Bucket Brigade found that Venture Global’s existing Calcasieu Pass facility had more than 2,000 permit violations.That includes exceeding the permit’s authorized air emissions limit to release nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, particulate matter and volatile organic compounds 286 out of its first 343 days of operation.
The Marvel Crane, the first liquid natural gas carrier to transport natural gas from the Southwest Louisiana LNG facility, transits a channel in Hackberry, Louisiana, May 28, 2019.
“This is just one facility,” at a time when three more facilities have been proposed in the region and state, Vasudevan said. Venture Global’s operational LNG facility — also known as Calcasieu Pass — “is much smaller than the other facility they’ve proposed.”
In an area that experienced 18 feet of storm surge during Hurricane Laura in 2020 — and just weeks later, struck by Hurricane Delta — Venture Global is planning to build a second export terminal Known as “CP2,” it’s the largest of the roughly two dozen proposed Gulf LNG export terminals, and a key focal point for the region’s local organizing effort.
Residents “don’t really want LNG as much as they want Cameron [Parish] from 1990 back,” Hiatt told EHN of locals’ nostalgia for a community before storms like Rita in 2005 brought up to 15 feet of storm surge, only for Laura to repeat the damage in 2020. Throughout that time, the parish’s population dipped from roughly 10,000 to 5,000. “But the wolf knocking at the door is LNG. Folks in Cameron think that's going to bring back community, bring back the schools, bring back this time before we had all these storms — when Cameron was pretty prosperous.”
“Clearly,” for the oil and gas industry, “the idea is to transform what was once the center of commercial fishing in Louisiana to gas exports,” Cindy Robertson, an environmental activist in southwest Louisiana, told EHN.
Helping fishers’ impacted by LNG is about “actual survival of this unique culture,” Cooke said.
In a measure of organizers’ success, she pointed to a recent permit hearing for Venture Global’s CP2 proposal. Regionally, it’s the only project that’s received an environmental permit, but not its export permit, which remains under federal review. At the meeting, some spoke on the company’s behalf. As an organizer, it was a moment of clarity, Cooke explained. Venture Global officials “had obviously done a lot of coaching and organizing and getting people together in Cameron to speak out on their behalf,” Cooke said. “So, in a way, that was bad. But in another way, it shows that we really had an impact.”
“It also shows that we have a lot to do,” Cooke added.
Environmental organizers like Alyssa Portaro describe a sense of fortitude among activists — she and her husband to the region’s nearby town of Vinton near the Texas-Louisiana border. Since the families’ relocation to their farm, Portaro has worked with Cameron Parish fisher-folk.
“I’ve not witnessed ‘community’ anywhere like there is in Louisiana,” Portaro told EHN. But a New Jersey native, she understands the toll environmental pollution has on low-income communities. “This environment, it’s so at risk — and it’s currently getting sacrificed to big industries.”
“People don’t know what we’d do without oil and gas. It comes at a big price,” she added.
Southwest Louisiana’s Cameron Parish is one of the state’s most rural localities. Marine economies were the area’s economic drivers until natural disasters and LNG facilities began pushing locals out, commercial fishers claim.
Credit: Xander Peters for Environmental Health News
Residents “don’t really want LNG as much as they want Cameron [Parish] from 1990 back,” James Hiatt , a Healthy Gulf organizer, told EHN. "But the wolf knocking at the door is LNG."
Credit: Xander Peters for Environmental Health News
For the most part, Cameron Parish’s life and economy has historically taken place at sea. As new LNG facilities are operational or in planning locally, locals claim the community they once knew is nearly unrecognizable.
Credit: Xander Peters for Environmental Health News
A disappearing parish
The stakes are seemingly higher for a region like southwest Louisiana, which is the epicenter of climate change impacts.
In nearly a century, the state has lost roughly 2,000 square miles of land to coastal erosion. In part driving the state’s erosion crisis is the compounding impacts of Mississippi River infrastructure and oil and gas industry activity, such as dredging canals for shipping purposes, according to a March study published in the journal Nature Sustainability. Louisiana’s Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority said Cameron Parish could lose more land than other coastal parishes over the next 50 years. A recent Climate Central report says the parish will be underwater within that time frame.
On top of erosion and sea level rise impacts, in August, 2023, marshland across southwest Louisiana’s Cameron Parish burned. The fires were among at least 600 across the Bayou State this year. Statewide, roughly 60,000 acres burned — a more than six-fold increase of the state’s average acres burned per year in the past decade alone.
But while the blaze avoided coastal Louisiana communities like Cameron Parish, the fires represented a warning coming from a growing chorus of locals across the region — one that’s echoes by the local commercial fishing population, who claimed to have experienced unusually low yields during the same time, according to a statement from a local environmental group. At the site of the Cameron Parish fires are locations for two proposed LNG expansion projects.
"The idea is to transform what was once the center of commercial fishing in Louisiana to gas exports.” - Cindy Robertson, an environmental activist in southwest Louisiana
It was an unusual occurrence for an area that’s more often itself underwater this time of year due to a storm surge from powerful storms. For LNG expansion’s local opposition, it was a red flag.
As the Louisiana Bucket Brigade has noted prior, the confluence of climate change’s raising of sea levels and the construction of LNG export terminals — some are proposed at the size of nearly 700 football fields — are wiping away the marshland folks like Allaire watched wither. Among their fears is that the future facilities won’t be able to withstand the power of another storm like Laura and its storm surge, which wiped away entire communities in 2020.
Amidst these regional climate impacts, LNG infrastructure has shown potential to exacerbate the accumulation of greenhouse gasses that cause global warming. For the most part, LNG is made up of methane — a greenhouse gas that’s more than 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Among the 22 current LNG facility proposals, the advocacy group Sierra Club described a combined climate pollution output that would roughly equal to that of about 440 coal plants.
The climate impacts prompt some of the LNG industry’s uncertainty going forward. It isn’t clear if Asian countries, key importers of U.S. LNG, will “embrace these energy transition issues,” said David Dismuke, an energy consultant and the former executive director of Louisiana State University’s Center for Energy Studies. Likewise, European nations remain skeptical of embracing LNG as a future staple fuel source.
“They really don't want to have to pull the trigger,” Dismukes added, referring to Europe’s hesitation to commit more resources to exporting LNG from the American market. “They don't want to go down that road.”
While there will be a tapering down of natural gas supply, Miles explained, “we’re going to need natural gas for a long time,” as larger battery storage for renewables is still unavailable.
“I'm not one of these futurists that can tell you where we're going to be, but I just don't see everything being extreme,” Dismukes said. “I don't see what we've already built getting stranded and going away, either.”
For now, LNG seems here to stay. From 2012 to 2022,U.S. natural gas demand — the sum of both domestic consumption and gross exports — rose by a whopping 43%, reported the U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA. Meanwhile, in oil and gas hotbeds like Louisiana and Texas, natural gas demand grew by 116%.
Throughout 25 years, Allaire has witnessed southwest Louisiana’s land slowly fade, in part driven by the same industrial spread regionally. Near where the front door of his travel trailer sits underneath the aluminum awning, he points to a chenier ridge located near the end of the property. It’s disappearing, he said.
“See the sand washing over, in here?” Allaire says, as he points towards the stretches of his property. “This pond used to go down for a half mile. This is all that's left of it on this side.”
The Biden administration is providing $1.7 billion to retool 11 auto factories for electric vehicle production, aiming to secure jobs and support union labor.
The Energy Department's funding aims to prevent the closure of unionized auto plants and save over 15,000 jobs.
This initiative is part of Biden’s strategy to boost EV production before the November election, countering potential policy reversals if Trump wins.
The largest allocation, $500 million, goes to General Motors in Lansing, Michigan, to shift from internal combustion engines to EVs.
Key quote:
“Building a clean energy economy can and should be a win-win for union autoworkers and automakers. This investment will create thousands of good-paying, union manufacturing jobs and retain even more — from Lansing, Michigan to Fort Valley, Georgia — by helping auto companies retool, reboot and rehire in the same factories and communities.”
— Joe Biden, President of the United States
Why this matters:
This funding supports the transition to electric vehicles, crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It also aims to secure jobs in an evolving auto industry, promoting economic stability in key states.
As climate change impacts walleye populations in Wisconsin lakes, Indigenous tribes and conservationists are striving to preserve the traditional practice of spearfishing.
Ojibwe and other Indigenous tribes rely on spearfishing for food, cultural connection, and tradition, but climate change and lakeshore development threaten walleye populations.
Conservation efforts include permits to limit fish catch and fish stocking, but natural reproduction remains a challenge due to environmental changes.
Indigenous knowledge is increasingly valued in conservation strategies to adapt to these changes and ensure sustainable fishing practices.
Key quote:
“We’ve seen things here over the last couple of years that I’ve never seen before. It worries me, what I’ve seen in my lifetime, what’s my grandson going to see in his lifetime?”
— Brian Bisonette, conservation director of the Lac Courte Oreilles Conservation Department
Why this matters:
Climate change and habitat loss threaten Indigenous food sources and cultural traditions. Collaborative conservation efforts aim to preserve these practices for future generations, emphasizing the intersection of environmental and cultural sustainability.
A new version of the popular board game Catan, called New Energies, aims to make discussing climate change more engaging by incorporating elements of renewable energy and fossil fuels.
The HHS Climate Action Plan emphasizes resilience without adequately addressing prevention.
Resilience policies overlook the pervasive and constant health threats posed by climate change.
The approach may lead to accepting climate disasters as inevitable, rather than preventable.
Key quote:
"Resilience is the categorical imperative of business-as-usual; it is crisis managers buying time. For others, resilience is exhausting."
— Ajay Singh Chaudhary, author of The Exhausted of the Earth.
Why this matters:
Focusing solely on resilience without prevention leaves populations, especially the vulnerable, in perpetual danger. This approach risks normalizing climate disasters instead of aiming to mitigate them.
A landmark climate lawsuit in Montana questions whether a state law supporting fossil fuel development infringes on constitutional rights to a healthy environment.
Montana's Supreme Court heard arguments about a law that prohibits considering climate impacts in fossil fuel project approvals, challenged by 16 youths.
Plaintiffs argue the law violates Montana’s constitutional right to a "clean and healthful environment," with potential national implications.
The state’s defense claims Montana's emissions are too minor to affect global climate change, questioning the court's jurisdiction.
Key quote:
“Any environmental case that gets to the Supreme Court is dead on arrival. That’s why people are going to the states.”
— Patrick Parenteau, professor of law emeritus and senior fellow for climate policy at Vermont Law and Graduate School
Why this matters:
The case could set a precedent for constitutional climate rights, influencing environmental policy and legal actions nationwide, especially as federal regulations face challenges. Read more: Youth v. Montana — Young adults speak up.
As mounds of dredged material from the Houston Ship Channel dot their neighborhoods, residents are left without answers as to what dangers could be lurking.
