Scientists probe ancient history of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and find unsettling news about sea level rise
The eastern Antarctic Wilkes Basin ice sheet seems to have receded during a warming event about 400,000 years ago—such a loss could add an additional 13 feet to sea level rise in the future
Researchers have found evidence of ice loss from Wilkes Basin in eastern Antarctica during a climate warming event 400,000 years ago, which suggests that parts of the East Antarctic ice sheet could be lost to modern warming trends—ultimately resulting in an additional 13 feet of sea level rise.
Scientists believe that over the last few million years, Earth's climate has oscillated between cooler periods when ice sheets spread across the poles and warmer periods when those ice sheets partially melted and sea levels rose. Climate scientists study these warmer periods hoping to refine climate models and make better predictions about the future impacts of human-caused climate change.
While the ice sheets of Greenland and western Antarctica have long been identified as vulnerable to climate change and drivers of sea level rise, the status of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, the largest freshwater reservoir in the world, has been more ambiguous, with some suggestion that it has been stable for millions of years and resisted past warming events.
However, in a Nature paper published today, a team of researchers present evidence that the ice sheet covering Wilkes Basin in East Antarctica receded roughly 435 miles during the Marine Isotopic Stage 11, a particularly long period of warming that occurred roughly 400,000 ago. During this time, the Earth's average temperature increased between one and two degrees Celsius, an increase comparable to modern climate change projections.
But the finding that the Wilkes Basin is less stable than originally thought substantially adds to the problem—experts estimate that over the coming centuries the combined ice sheets of Greenland, western Antarctica, and, now, the Wilkes Basin, could cause sea levels to rise by 42 feet.
"For a long time now, it's been very difficult to reconstruct…what's happened to ice sheets in response to warming events," Terrence Blackburn, assistant professor of Earth and planetary sciences at University of California, Santa Cruz and lead author on the new paper, told EHN. "As soon as those glaciers re-advance during that cold period, they would cover up and destroy all that evidence. But what we have found is that there is another…archive of how long the ice has been stable."
Blackburn's team used an analysis of uranium isotopes in mineral samples dated from different times in Wilkes Basin history to create a timeline of glacier advance and retreat. Water, which typically contains trace amounts of uranium, naturally becomes enriched with a specific isotope of uranium, uranium-234, because of interactions between the water and rocks.
If this water is in a free-flowing source, like a stream, the uranium isotope gets diluted and never builds up. However, the researchers found that water trapped under glaciers will build up high levels of the uranium isotope.
This water will refreeze at the edges of the glacier and its minerals will all precipitate out, forming opal and calcite deposits. The uranium-234 content of the glacier water is effectively recorded inside these deposits. By locating and dating the deposits, researchers can learn what the isotopic makeup of the subglacial water was at the time the deposit was formed.
The researchers found that during the Marine Isotopic Stage 11, uranium-234 enrichment levels dropped, and then began to slowly build back up.
The researchers believe the decline in uranium-234 enrichment occurred as glacial waters in the Wilkes Basin were flushed out by melting ice and sea water. But then, as temperatures cooled, the glacier began to reestablish itself and sequester enriched water in the Basin once again.
"People haven't really used this technique to infer retreat of the margins of the ice sheets before, so it's really cutting edge in that sense," Andrea Dutton, a paleoceanographer at University of Wisconsin-Madison and expert in sea level change who was not involved with the study, told EHN.
She added that, like areas of concern in western Antarctica, the Wilkes Basin ice sheet sits on ground that is below sea level. This structure makes glaciers more prone to melting as ocean water warms.
"Understanding how susceptible these vulnerable parts of the ice sheet, these marine base portions are is the biggest question right now in terms of providing accurate sea level projections for the future," said Dutton.
Robert Kopp, director of the Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences who was not involved with the study, said that other areas of Antarctica, such as the Antarctic Peninsula and Thwaites Glacier, face a more near-term threat than Wilkes Basin, but that future melting in eastern Antarctica could be catalyzed by decisions that humanity makes today.
"What this is really about is…sea level commitment," he told EHN. "That is, if we warm the planet up two degrees, how much sea level rise do we expect to see over the coming many centuries to millennia as a result of that? What is the world we are creating for our descendants?"
Banner photo: The Matusevich Glacier flows toward the coast of East Antarctica. (Credit: NASA)
A recent study reveals that climate change is severely disrupting nutrient retention in alpine ecosystems, particularly impacting the nitrogen cycle vital for plant and soil health.
Alpine regions are experiencing enhanced warming, resulting in decreased snow cover and increased shrub migration, affecting the ecosystems' ability to retain nutrients like nitrogen.
Seasonal dynamics are crucial; disruptions in spring and autumn significantly diminish nitrogen uptake by plants, impacting overall ecosystem health.
Experiments in the Austrian Alps have demonstrated how altered snow patterns and shrub growth negatively influence the nitrogen cycle.
Key quote:
“[The study] really added to the literature, arguing that it’s really important to understand the interaction among the different elements of an ecosystem and what the effects of climate change will be.”
— Olivier Dangles, author of Climate Change on Mountains.
Why this matters:
Alpine ecosystems are biodiversity hotspots and serve as home to species uniquely adapted to cold environments. As the climate warms, these species face increased risk of extinction if their habitat changes too quickly for them to adapt. In addition, A reduced snow cover and altered precipitation patterns could lead to water shortages, affecting agriculture, drinking water supplies and hydroelectric power generation.
CAMERON PARISH, La. — Late into the night, John Allaire watches the facility next to his home shoot 300-foot flares from stacks.
He lives within eyesight of southwest Louisiana’s salty shores, where, for decades, he’s witnessed nearly 200 feet of land between it and his property line disappear into the sea. Two-thirds of the land was rebuilt to aid the oil and gas industry’s LNG expansion. LNG — shorthand for liquified natural gas – is natural gas that's cooled to liquid form for easier storage or transport; it equates to 1/600th the volume of natural gas in a gaseous state. It’s used to generate electricity, or fuel stove tops and home heaters, and in industrial processes like manufacturing fertilizer.
In the U.S., at least 30 new LNG terminal facilities have been constructed or proposed since 2016, according to the
Oil and Gas Watch project. Louisiana and Texas’ Gulf Coast, where five facilities are already operating, will host roughly two-thirds of the new LNG terminals – meaning at least 22 Gulf Coast LNG facilities are currently under construction, were recently approved to break ground or are under further regulatory review.
Although the U.S. didn’t ship LNG until 2016, when a freight tanker left, a few miles from where Cameron Parish’s LNG plants are today, last year the country became the global leader in LNG production and export volume, leapfrogging exporters like Qatar and Australia. The
EIA’s most recent annual outlook estimated that between the current year and 2050, U.S. LNG exports will increase by 152%.
Allaire, 68, watches how saltwater collects where rainwater once fed the area’s diminishing coastal wetlands. “We still come down here with the kids and set out the fishing rods. It's not as nice as it used to be,” he told
Environmental Health News (EHN).
That intimacy with nature drew Allaire to the area when he purchased 311 acres in 1998. An environmental engineer and 30-year oil and gas industry veteran, he helped lead environmental assessments and manage clean-ups, and although retired, he still works part-time as an environmental consultant with major petroleum companies. With a lifetime of oil and gas industry expertise, he’s watched the industry's footprint spread across Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico’s fragile shores and beyond. Now that the footprints are at the edge of his backyard, Allaire is among a cohort of organizers, residents and fisher-folk in the region mobilizing to stop LNG facility construction. For him, the industry’s expansion usurps the right-or-wrong ethics he carried across his consulting career. For anglers, oil and gas infrastructure has destroyed fishing grounds and prevented smaller vessels from accessing the seafood-rich waters of the Calcasieu River.
From the view of Allaire’s white pickup truck as he drives across his property to the ocean’s shore, he points to where a new LNG facility will replace marshlands. Commonwealth LNG intends to clear the land of trees and then backfill the remaining low-lying field.
“You see what’s happening with the environment,” Allaire said. “When the facts change, I got to change my mind about what we’re doing.”
Community bands together
John Allaire, left, purchased 311 acres in Cameron Parish in 1998, and has watched the oil and gas industry's footprint spread to his property.
Credit: John Allaire
During an Earth Day rally in April, community members gathered in the urban center of Lake Charles to demand local oil and gas industries help deliver a safer, healthier future for all. In between live acts by artists performing south Louisiana’s quintessential zydeco musical style, speakers like James Hiatt, a Calcasieu Parish native with ties to Cameron Parish and a Healthy Gulf organizer, and RISE St. James organizer Sharon Lavigne, who’s fighting against LNG development in rural Plaquemines Parish near the city of New Orleans, asked the nearly 100 in attendance to imagine a day in which the skyline isn’t dotted by oil and gas infrastructure.
Not long ago, it was hard to imagine an Earth Day rally in southwest Louisiana at all. For decades, the area has been decorated with fossil fuel infrastructure. Sunsets on some days are highlighted by the chemicals in the air; at night, thousands of facilities’ lights dot the dark sky.
“It takes a lot of balls for people to start speaking up,” Shreyas Vasudevan, a campaign researcher with the Louisiana Bucket Brigade, told EHN in the days after the rally. In a region with its history and economy intertwined with oil and gas production, “you can get a lot of social criticism – or ostracization, as well – even threats to your life.”
Many are involved in local, regional and national advocacy groups, including the Louisiana Bucket Brigade, Healthy Gulf, the Sierra Club, the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Turtle Island Restoration Network, the Center for Biological Diversity and the National Audubon Society.
“You see what’s happening with the environment,” Allaire said. “When the facts change, I got to change my mind about what we’re doing.” - John Allaire, environmental engineer and 30-year oil and gas industry veteran
But environmental organizers are fighting a multi-billion-dollar industry with federal and state winds at its back. And LNG’s federal support is coupled with existing state initiatives.
Under outgoing Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards — a term-limited Democrat — the state pledged a goal of reaching net-zero greenhouse emissions by 2050. Natural gas, which the LNG industry markets as a cleaner-burning alternative, is cited as one of the state’s solutions. Louisiana is the only state that produces a majority of its carbon emissions through fossil fuels refining industries, like LNG, rather than energy production or transportation. Governor Edwards’ office did not return EHN’s request for comment.
This accommodating attitude towards oil and gas industries has resulted in a workforce that’s trained to work in LNG refining facilities across much of the rural Gulf region, said Steven Miles, a lawyer at Baker Botts LLP and a fellow at the Baker Institute’s Center on Energy Studies. Simultaneously, anti-industrialization pushback is lacking. It’s good news for industries like LNG.
“The bad news,” Miles added. “[LNG facilities] are all being jammed in the same areas.”
One rallying cry for opponents is local health. The Environmental Integrity Project found that LNG export terminals emit chemicals like carbon monoxide –potentially deadly– and sulfur dioxide, of which the American Lung Association says long-term exposure can lead to heart disease, cancer, and damage to internal or female reproductive organs.
An analysis of emissions monitoring reports by the advocacy group the Louisiana Bucket Brigade found that Venture Global’s existing Calcasieu Pass facility had more than 2,000 permit violations.That includes exceeding the permit’s authorized air emissions limit to release nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, particulate matter and volatile organic compounds 286 out of its first 343 days of operation.
The Marvel Crane, the first liquid natural gas carrier to transport natural gas from the Southwest Louisiana LNG facility, transits a channel in Hackberry, Louisiana, May 28, 2019.
“This is just one facility,” at a time when three more facilities have been proposed in the region and state, Vasudevan said. Venture Global’s operational LNG facility — also known as Calcasieu Pass — “is much smaller than the other facility they’ve proposed.”
In an area that experienced 18 feet of storm surge during Hurricane Laura in 2020 — and just weeks later, struck by Hurricane Delta — Venture Global is planning to build a second export terminal Known as “CP2,” it’s the largest of the roughly two dozen proposed Gulf LNG export terminals, and a key focal point for the region’s local organizing effort.
Residents “don’t really want LNG as much as they want Cameron [Parish] from 1990 back,” Hiatt told EHN of locals’ nostalgia for a community before storms like Rita in 2005 brought up to 15 feet of storm surge, only for Laura to repeat the damage in 2020. Throughout that time, the parish’s population dipped from roughly 10,000 to 5,000. “But the wolf knocking at the door is LNG. Folks in Cameron think that's going to bring back community, bring back the schools, bring back this time before we had all these storms — when Cameron was pretty prosperous.”
“Clearly,” for the oil and gas industry, “the idea is to transform what was once the center of commercial fishing in Louisiana to gas exports,” Cindy Robertson, an environmental activist in southwest Louisiana, told EHN.
Helping fishers’ impacted by LNG is about “actual survival of this unique culture,” Cooke said.
In a measure of organizers’ success, she pointed to a recent permit hearing for Venture Global’s CP2 proposal. Regionally, it’s the only project that’s received an environmental permit, but not its export permit, which remains under federal review. At the meeting, some spoke on the company’s behalf. As an organizer, it was a moment of clarity, Cooke explained. Venture Global officials “had obviously done a lot of coaching and organizing and getting people together in Cameron to speak out on their behalf,” Cooke said. “So, in a way, that was bad. But in another way, it shows that we really had an impact.”
“It also shows that we have a lot to do,” Cooke added.
Environmental organizers like Alyssa Portaro describe a sense of fortitude among activists — she and her husband to the region’s nearby town of Vinton near the Texas-Louisiana border. Since the families’ relocation to their farm, Portaro has worked with Cameron Parish fisher-folk.
“I’ve not witnessed ‘community’ anywhere like there is in Louisiana,” Portaro told EHN. But a New Jersey native, she understands the toll environmental pollution has on low-income communities. “This environment, it’s so at risk — and it’s currently getting sacrificed to big industries.”
“People don’t know what we’d do without oil and gas. It comes at a big price,” she added.
Southwest Louisiana’s Cameron Parish is one of the state’s most rural localities. Marine economies were the area’s economic drivers until natural disasters and LNG facilities began pushing locals out, commercial fishers claim.
Credit: Xander Peters for Environmental Health News
Residents “don’t really want LNG as much as they want Cameron [Parish] from 1990 back,” James Hiatt , a Healthy Gulf organizer, told EHN. "But the wolf knocking at the door is LNG."
Credit: Xander Peters for Environmental Health News
For the most part, Cameron Parish’s life and economy has historically taken place at sea. As new LNG facilities are operational or in planning locally, locals claim the community they once knew is nearly unrecognizable.
Credit: Xander Peters for Environmental Health News
A disappearing parish
The stakes are seemingly higher for a region like southwest Louisiana, which is the epicenter of climate change impacts.
In nearly a century, the state has lost roughly 2,000 square miles of land to coastal erosion. In part driving the state’s erosion crisis is the compounding impacts of Mississippi River infrastructure and oil and gas industry activity, such as dredging canals for shipping purposes, according to a March study published in the journal Nature Sustainability. Louisiana’s Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority said Cameron Parish could lose more land than other coastal parishes over the next 50 years. A recent Climate Central report says the parish will be underwater within that time frame.
On top of erosion and sea level rise impacts, in August, 2023, marshland across southwest Louisiana’s Cameron Parish burned. The fires were among at least 600 across the Bayou State this year. Statewide, roughly 60,000 acres burned — a more than six-fold increase of the state’s average acres burned per year in the past decade alone.
But while the blaze avoided coastal Louisiana communities like Cameron Parish, the fires represented a warning coming from a growing chorus of locals across the region — one that’s echoes by the local commercial fishing population, who claimed to have experienced unusually low yields during the same time, according to a statement from a local environmental group. At the site of the Cameron Parish fires are locations for two proposed LNG expansion projects.
"The idea is to transform what was once the center of commercial fishing in Louisiana to gas exports.” - Cindy Robertson, an environmental activist in southwest Louisiana
It was an unusual occurrence for an area that’s more often itself underwater this time of year due to a storm surge from powerful storms. For LNG expansion’s local opposition, it was a red flag.
As the Louisiana Bucket Brigade has noted prior, the confluence of climate change’s raising of sea levels and the construction of LNG export terminals — some are proposed at the size of nearly 700 football fields — are wiping away the marshland folks like Allaire watched wither. Among their fears is that the future facilities won’t be able to withstand the power of another storm like Laura and its storm surge, which wiped away entire communities in 2020.
Amidst these regional climate impacts, LNG infrastructure has shown potential to exacerbate the accumulation of greenhouse gasses that cause global warming. For the most part, LNG is made up of methane — a greenhouse gas that’s more than 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Among the 22 current LNG facility proposals, the advocacy group Sierra Club described a combined climate pollution output that would roughly equal to that of about 440 coal plants.
The climate impacts prompt some of the LNG industry’s uncertainty going forward. It isn’t clear if Asian countries, key importers of U.S. LNG, will “embrace these energy transition issues,” said David Dismuke, an energy consultant and the former executive director of Louisiana State University’s Center for Energy Studies. Likewise, European nations remain skeptical of embracing LNG as a future staple fuel source.
“They really don't want to have to pull the trigger,” Dismukes added, referring to Europe’s hesitation to commit more resources to exporting LNG from the American market. “They don't want to go down that road.”
While there will be a tapering down of natural gas supply, Miles explained, “we’re going to need natural gas for a long time,” as larger battery storage for renewables is still unavailable.
“I'm not one of these futurists that can tell you where we're going to be, but I just don't see everything being extreme,” Dismukes said. “I don't see what we've already built getting stranded and going away, either.”
For now, LNG seems here to stay. From 2012 to 2022,U.S. natural gas demand — the sum of both domestic consumption and gross exports — rose by a whopping 43%, reported the U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA. Meanwhile, in oil and gas hotbeds like Louisiana and Texas, natural gas demand grew by 116%.
Throughout 25 years, Allaire has witnessed southwest Louisiana’s land slowly fade, in part driven by the same industrial spread regionally. Near where the front door of his travel trailer sits underneath the aluminum awning, he points to a chenier ridge located near the end of the property. It’s disappearing, he said.
“See the sand washing over, in here?” Allaire says, as he points towards the stretches of his property. “This pond used to go down for a half mile. This is all that's left of it on this side.”
The Solar for All program will fund solar and battery installations in low-income neighborhoods, benefiting approximately 900,000 households.
Funding will be managed by state, municipal and tribal governments along with nonprofits, with implementation slated for the summer.
The initiative will help achieve the administration's clean energy goals and reduce energy expenses for families by an average of $400 annually.
Key quote:
“Low income families can spend up to 30 percent of their paychecks on their energy bills. It’s outrageous.”
— U.S. President Joe Biden.
Why this matters:
As President Biden noted, many low-income families spend a significant portion of their income on utility bills. Solar energy can drastically reduce these costs, easing financial burdens and increasing disposable income for other essential needs.
Students at Columbia, Tulane and the University of Virginia have legally challenged their universities' investments in fossil fuels, claiming these are illegal and breach institutional obligations.
Students argue investments in fossil fuel companies contradict the schools’ missions of promoting " socially beneficial ends."
They highlight conflicts of interest with faculty and board members receiving payments from the fossil fuel sector.
Legal actions align with broader divestment efforts and increased scrutiny of fossil fuel influence in academia.
Key quote:
"Universities occupy a unique position as a bastion of values and morals the best of society should strive for. When Columbia refuses to commit to divestment, it hinders those very same principles and continues a blatant disregard of the important climate work its own faculty, students and affiliates do."
— Nicole Xiao, second-year Columbia student studying climate systems science.
In an effort to combat long-standing energy inequities, Navajo Nation organizations are employing solar energy to bring power to off-grid homes for the first time.
Organizations like Navajo Power aim to address energy injustice in the Navajo Nation by powering homes with solar energy.
A development ban law known as the "Bennett Freeze" hindered development in Navajo and Hopi nations from 1966 to 2009, leaving many without power for decades.
Partnerships with groups like Native Renewables harness the cultural importance of solar energy, connecting Navajo homes to the grid and creating jobs.
Key quote:
" The Navajo Nation served as the battery for the West for decades (...) We're solving issues using our own resources; it's derived by people from here, built by people from here, and for people that are living here."
— Brett Issac, founder and executive chairman of Navajo Power.
Why this matters:
This initiative aims to provide energy independence for the Navajo nation, where currently more than 15,000 homes don't have power.
Researchers and startups are developing innovative marine carbon dioxide removal techniques to increase the ocean's carbon absorption capabilities. However, doubts about its potential impacts remain.
The ocean absorbs 30% of global CO2 emissions. Private companies, venture capitalists and governments are developing new methods to "enhance" this capacity.
Startups like Running Tide are experimenting with sinking biomass into the ocean to store carbon, leveraging the ocean's natural capacity to do so. Others are experimenting with algae and kelp or pumping seawater through electrodialysis filtering systems.
Scientists express concerns about the unknown effects and efficacy of marine carbon dioxide removal methods on global warming and marine ecosystems.
Key quote:
“We’re intervening in the natural world, which means we need to be very careful about what we do.”
— Kristinn Hróbjartsson, general manager of Running Tide in Iceland.
Why this matters:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made it clear that carbon sequestration needs to be part of the strategies to limit global warming to between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius. Enhanced marine carbon sequestration could play a role in meeting the threshold.
California's Attorney General announced an impending decision on potential legal actions against Exxon Mobil Corp over its role in global plastic pollution.
The investigation, started in 2022, examines the oil and petrochemical industry's contributions to plastic waste and misinformation about recycling.
Exxon, facing scrutiny for misleading public claims about plastic recyclability, is promoting the contentious chemical recycling, also known as advanced recycling.
Despite ongoing projects, criticisms point to significant delays and failures in Exxon's recycling advancements.
Key quote:
"We are soon going to be ready to get to a decision based on all of our investigations in the coming weeks."
— Rob Bonta, California Attorney General.
Why this matters:
Many consumers believe that recycling their plastic waste sufficiently addresses the problem, but the reality is that a significant portion of plastic is not recyclable, and existing recycling systems capture only a small fraction of the total plastic waste. Most plastic accumulates in landfills, oceans and other ecosystems, where it can take hundreds of years to degrade, releasing harmful chemicals and microplastics that can be ingested by wildlife and enter the human food chain.
Biodegradable food packaging is a step in the right direction, experts say, but when composted carries risks of microplastic and chemical contamination.
