Trump’s China tariffs drive up Brazil soy farming and Amazon deforestation

China is expected to buy more soybeans from Brazil — accelerating forest loss in the Amazon and the Cerrado — as U.S. tariffs disrupt global agricultural trade.

Sarah Sax reports for The Atlantic.

In short:

• A new round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, including a 145 percent duty, has led China to redirect its soybean purchases from the U.S. to Brazil, potentially increasing deforestation in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes.
• Brazilian right-wing governors are weakening environmental protections and attempting to void the Soy Moratorium, which has historically curbed Amazon deforestation linked to soy production.
• Indigenous communities, such as the Munduruku, are facing environmental degradation and threats to land rights as soy plantations expand around their territories.

Key quote:

“The fact that the Amazon soy moratorium is actively being weakened right now, I think it puts Brazil at a really precarious place.”

— Lisa Rausch, University of Wisconsin at Madison

Why this matters:

Soy farming is a leading driver of deforestation in Brazil, especially in the Amazon and Cerrado regions — both critical carbon sinks for the planet. When forests are cleared, vast stores of carbon are released, worsening climate change. The recent spike in global demand for Brazilian soy, fueled by trade tensions between the U.S. and China, threatens to accelerate this deforestation. And it’s not just climate at risk: Indigenous communities, long-standing stewards of the forest, are losing access to clean water and land, while government leaders push to gut environmental regulations. These changes come at a time when enforcement in the Amazon remains weak, and land-clearing practices — often illegal — continue largely unchecked. If deforestation increases, the consequences extend far beyond Brazil: disrupted rainfall patterns could affect agriculture across South America, and the loss of biodiversity may prove irreversible.

Related: Brazil Supreme Court justice sparks backlash with proposal to weaken Indigenous land rights