Three-quarters of Paris Agreement pledges judged insufficient

As the US begins to withdraw from the global climate pact, the remaining pledges fall short in stemming planet-warming emissions growth.

News for the United Nations just gets worse.


First President Trump, on the first day he could legally do so, officially began to withdraw the United States from the UN's Paris climate agreement.

A day later a new analysis finds three-quarters of the remaining pledges inadequate to meet global climate goals – with many unlikely to be achieved at all.

At least 130 of the 184 nations to sign the Paris Agreement in 2015, including the United States, are falling far short, according to the Universal Ecological Fund, a Washington, D.C.-based group dedicated to analyzing climate science. Those efforts under the agreement are supposed to reduce global emissions 50 percent by 2030 to limit average global temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

"With few exceptions, the pledges of rich, middle income and poor nations are insufficient to address climate change," says Sir Robert Watson, former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and co-author of the report, "The Truth Behind Climate Pledges," released Tuesday.

"Simply, the pledges are far too little, too late."



The news came a day after Trump, in a move promised in 2017, formally began the year-long effort to extract the United States from pledges President Obama agreed to in 2015 as its part of the global agreement.

The U.S. agreed to cut its emissions by almost a quarter of 2005 levels by 2025, but Trump has spent the past three years rolling back environmental limits. State and local efforts are trying to fill the gap, the Ecological Fund said, but those efforts focus mostly on electricity generation and auto emissions and are failing to hit the mark.

China, the world's largest emitter, is expected to meet its pledge of "reducing its carbon intensity" by 60-65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030 – a measure that looks at the amount of CO2 emissions per unit of gross domestic product.

However, China's overall CO2 emissions increased by 80 percent between 2005 and 2018 and are expected to continue rising for the next decade, the report's authors concluded.

India, likewise, has vowed to cut its "emissions intensity" by 30 percent to 35 percent by 2030 – a promise it, too, is likely to keep. But like China, India's economy continues to expand, meaning its total emissions are likely to grow through 2030 due to economic growth.

The lack of ambition isn't limited to just the world's major emitters: Of the 184 country pledges in the Paris Agreement, 126 are partially or totally dependent on international finance, technology and capacity building. With no sign of international support for such efforts, many of those commitments may never materialize, the report concluded.

"it is naïve to expect current government efforts to substantially slow climate change," said James McCarthy, Professor of Oceanography at Harvard University and a co-author of the report.

There is one bright spot:

The European Union, with its 28 member states, stands alone among the five top greenhouse gas emitters to take an aggressive stand against climate change. The EU is expected to cut emissions 58 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, exceeding its Paris promise of "at least 40 percent of GHG emissions" below 1990's level."

The report ranks the EU pledge as sufficient.

penn state weather monitor flooding climate
Photo by Wes Warren on Unsplash

Penn State expanding weather network, offering data that could help areas prepare for floods

Penn State is expanding a tool to give the public access to weather information across the state. Data from the project could help communities prepare for severe storms and flooding, which are expected to increase in Pennsylvania as the climate changes.

Senator Whitehouse & climate change

Senator Whitehouse puts climate change on budget committee’s agenda

For more than a decade, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse gave daily warnings about the mounting threat of climate change. Now he has a powerful new perch.

Unheralded environmentalist: Jimmy Carter’s green legacy

With the former president now in hospice care, Pulitzer Prize-winning biographer Kai Bird looks back on Jimmy Carter’s environmental record in the White House — from his sweeping protection of Alaska’s wild lands to his efforts to push the nation toward renewable energy.

Melting Antarctic ice predicted to cause rapid slowdown of deep ocean current by 2050

Melting ice around Antarctica will cause a rapid slowdown of a major global deep ocean current by 2050 that could alter the world’s climate for centuries and accelerate sea level rise, according to scientists behind new research.

Sajed Kamal, fracking climate
Photo by Brad Weaver on Unsplash

Sajed Kamal: M.A.D. or collective survival?

Aggressively pursued behind the façade of energy independence from foreign sources and domestic job creation, short-term, highly profitable fracking has accelerated the path to long-term economic, environmental and public health catastrophe.

antarctic sea climate warming ice
Photo by Dennis Rochel on Unsplash

Western Antarctic sea loses 3 trillion tons of ice in 25 years, study finds

The Amundsen Sea in western Antarctica has been hit particularly hard by the catastrophic effects of climate change, losing over three trillion tons of ice in just 25 years. This region stands out as one of the areas most severely affected by extreme weather conditions.

Nuclear dispute hangs over EU renewable energy talks

The European Union enters the final stage of tense talks over how to treat hydrogen produced using nuclear power on Wednesday, in an effort to end a dispute that threatens to thwart a deal on more ambitious renewable energy goals.
green industrial strategy climate uk
Photo by Shane Rounce on Unsplash

UK’s green industrial strategy delayed until autumn, Chancellor says

Climate and energy analysts said the UK risks losing the global race to develop green industries if it does not announce policies now.
From our Newsroom
Partha Dasgupta economics of nature

An economist's 'answer to everything.' Hint: It takes nature

Economist Partha Dasgupta takes issue with our failure to account for the cost of Earth's destruction

oil and gas wells pollution

What happens if the largest owner of oil and gas wells in the US goes bankrupt?

Diversified Energy’s liabilities exceed its assets, according to a new report, sparking concerns about whether taxpayers will wind up paying to plug its 70,000 wells.

Paul Ehrlich

Paul Ehrlich: A journey through science and politics

In his new book, the famous scientist reflects on an unparalleled career on our fascinating, ever-changing planet.

oil and gas california environmental justice

Will California’s new oil and gas laws protect people from toxic pollution?

California will soon have the largest oil drilling setbacks in the U.S. Experts say other states can learn from this move.

Stay informed: sign up for The Daily Climate newsletter
Top news on climate impacts, solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered to your inbox week days.